This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982). Using insights on the behavior of multiplicative stochastic processes, we demonstrate that the tails of the unconditional distribution emerging from such bubble processes follow power-laws (exhibit hyperbolic decline). More precisely, we find that rational bubbles predict a fat power tail for both the bubble component and price differences with an exponent m smaller than 1. The distribution of returns is dominated by the same power-law over an extended range of large returns. Although power-law tails are a pervasive feature of empirical data, these numerical predictions are in disagreement with the usual empirical estimates. It, therefore, appears that exogenous rational bubbles are hardly reconcilable with some of the stylized facts of financial data at a very elementary level.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number
458.
Length: Date of creation: Oct 1999 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:bon:bonsfb:458
Contact details of provider: Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany Fax: +49 228 73 9221 Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de/index.php?id=517
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Daniel Park).
Find related papers by JEL classification: G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Did you know? You can import bibliographic info in various formats into you bibliographic tool, or just into your word processor. See under "publisher info" on each abstract page.