Building a Consistent Pricing Model from Observed Option Prices
AbstractThis paper constructs a model for the evolution of a risky security that is consistent with a set of observed call option prices. It explicitly treats the fact that only a discrete data set can be observed in practice. The framework is general and allows for state dependent volatility and jumps. The theoretical properties are studied. An easy procedure to check for arbitrage opportunities in market data is proved and then used to ensure the feasibility of our approach. The implementation is discussed: testing on market data reveals a U-shaped form for the "local volatility" depending on the state and, surprisingly, a large probability for strong price movements.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number 443.
Date of creation: Dec 1998
Date of revision:
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Markov Chain; no-arbitrage; cross-entropy; model risk;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Buchen, Peter W. & Kelly, Michael, 1996. "The Maximum Entropy Distribution of an Asset Inferred from Option Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 143-159, March.
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"Assessing specification errors in stochastic discount factor models,"
167, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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- Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December.
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- Cousot, Laurent, 2007. "Conditions on option prices for absence of arbitrage and exact calibration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3377-3397, November.
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