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Sources of Purchasing Power Disparities Between the G3-Economies

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  • Weber, Axel A.
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    Abstract

    Recent theoretical and empirical research in international macroeconomics has rediscovered the problem of purchasing power parity (PPP). Empirically, PPP is a bad approximation of both the short-term and medium-term properties of the data. Economists have had difficulties in explaining the persistent misalignments of real exchange rates, but new empirical research by Clarida and Galí (1995) suggests that much of these real exchange rate movements are due to relative demand shocks. The present paper challenges this view by using an extended version of their structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model in order to identify a larger number of real shocks (labour supply, productivity and aggregate demand) and nominal shocks (money demand and money supply). It is found that whilst some of their results go through in our extended framework, there is serious doubt with respect to the appropriateness of labelling those shocks which drive real exchange rates as aggregate demand disturbances.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number 419.

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    Length: pages
    Date of creation: Nov 1997
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    Handle: RePEc:bon:bonsfb:419

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    Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany
    Fax: +49 228 73 6884
    Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de

    Related research

    Keywords: purchasing power parity; real exchange rates; shocks; structural vector autoregression; impulse response functions; variance decompositions;

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    References

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    1. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1996. "Do Exchange Rates Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    14. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    15. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1996. "Relative Labour Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:
    1. Karolina Konopczak & Krzysztof Marczewski, 2011. "Why so different from other CEECs – Poland’s cyclical divergence from the euro area during the recent financial crisis," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 42(2), pages 7-30.
    2. Jaanus Raim, 2004. "The Alternative to the Existing System of the Concepts about Purchasing Power Parity Deviations . Derived from the Estonian Experience," Working Papers 115, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology.
    3. Haskel, Jonathan & Wolf, Holger, 2001. " The Law of One Price--A Case Study," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(4), pages 545-58, December.
    4. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Detken, Carsten & Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jérôme & Marin, Carmen & Smets, Frank, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 0160, European Central Bank.
    6. Hoffmann, Mathias, 2001. "Long run recursive VAR models and QR decompositions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 15-20, October.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Ciferri, Davide & Girardi, Alessandro, 2011. "Fiscal shocks and real exchange rate dynamics: Some evidence for Latin America," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 709-723, September.
    8. Kempa, Bernd, 2003. "An oversimplified inquiry into the sources of exchange rate variability," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 129, University of Duisburg-Essen, Faculty for Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Bernd Kempa, 2005. "How Important are Nominal Shocks in Driving Real Exchange Rates?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 225(2), pages 192-204, March.
    10. Selahattin Dibooglu & Faik Koray, 2001. "The Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate Under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rate Regimes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 123-143, April.
    11. Alexius, Annika, 2005. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 555-566, April.
    12. Dibooglu, Sel & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Sources of inflation and output movements in Poland and Hungary: Policy implications for accession to the economic and monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 107-131, March.
    13. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2005. "The Real Exchange Rate And The Balassa-Samuelson Effect: The Role Of The Distribution Sector," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 29-48, 02.
    14. Shambaugh, Jay, 2008. "A new look at pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 560-591, June.
    15. Hoffmann, M. & MacDonald, R., 2001. "A real differential view of equilibrium real exchange rate," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0103, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    16. Dibooglu, Selahattin & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "Sources of inflation and output fluctuations in Poland and Hungary: Implications for full membership in the European Union," ZEI Working Papers B 16-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
    17. Agnieszka Stazka, 2006. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe – Temporary or Permanent?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1876, CESifo Group Munich.

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