Log-Normal Interest Rate Models: Stability and Methodology
AbstractThe lognormal distribution assumption for the term structure of interest is the most natural way to exclude negative spot and forward rates. However, imposing this assumption on the continuously compounded interest rate has a serious drawback: rates explode and expected rollover returns are infinite even if the rollover period is arbitrarily short. As a consequence such models cannot price one of the most widely used hedging instrument on the Euromoney market, nameley the Eurodollar future contract. The purpose of this paper is twofold: First to show that the problems with lognormal models result from modelling the wrong rate, namely the continuously compounded rate. If instead one models the effective annual rate these problems disappear. Second to give a survey on recent work on lognormal term structure models for effective or nominal forward rates.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number 398.
Date of creation: Jan 1997
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Term Structure Models; Lognormal Interest Rate; Eurodollar Futures;
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- Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92.
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