Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule
AbstractIn the evaluation of experiments often the problem arises how to compare the predictive success of competing probabilistic theories. The quadratic soring rule can be used for this purpose. Originally this rule has been proposed as an incentive compatible elicitation method for probabilistic expert judgements. It is shown that up to a positive linear transformation, the quadratic scoring rule is characterized by five desirable properties.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number 390.
Date of creation: Oct 1996
Date of revision:
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Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany
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Scoring Rules; Descriptive Statistics;
Other versions of this item:
- Reinhard Selten, 1998. "Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 43-61, June.
- C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Selten,Reinhard, .
"Properties of a measure of predictive succes,"
Discussion Paper Serie B
130, University of Bonn, Germany.
- James E. Matheson & Robert L. Winkler, 1976. "Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1087-1096, June.
- Daniel Friedman, 1983. "Effective Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(4), pages 447-454, April.
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