New Hope for the Fisher Effect? A Re-Examination Using Threshold Cointegration
AbstractThis paper reassesses the long-run relation between nominal interest rates and inflation using German data. It shows that the empirical rejection of the strict Fisher effect in previous studies, i.e., the finding of interest rates not fully adjusting to changes in inflation, can be attributed to the particular time series behavior of inflation and interest rates which cannot be accounted for by standard non-stationary models. It is argued that the stochastic process governing the bivariate system of inflation and interest rates depends on the level of the variables and should be modeled as a threshold cointegration (TC) model. Contrary to the unit root hypothesis this model can be given an economic interpretation in terms of the opportunistic approach to disinflation. The full Fisher effect, even in its tax-adjusted form, cannot be rejected when a threshold cointegration model is estimated. The TC model not only explains the downward bias of the coefficient estimates, but also the sample and country sensitivity observed in previous studies. The TC model may prove useful in testing other long-run relations such as uncovered interest rate parity or purchasing power parity.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number 303 B385.
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Fax: +49 228 73 6884
Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de/index.php?id=517
Inflation; interest rates; unit-roots; cointegration; bootstrap; Monte Carlo; threshold cointegration; SETAR-models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-1999-12-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-1999-12-01 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-MON-1999-12-01 (Monetary Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (BGSE Office).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.