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The Stability of European Money Demand: An Investigation of M3H

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  • Wesche, Katrin

Abstract

The paper assesses the stability and predictive performance of a European money demand function as compared to national money demand functions. Two different groups of countries for a monetary union are considered. With respect to the explanatory accuracy, the national functions perform better than the aggregated function though the difference is barely significant. Examination of the residuals of the national money demand equations indicates that currency substitution is not the major cause for the stability of the aggregated money demand function.

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File URL: http://www.wiwi.uni-bonn.de/bgsepapers/bonsfb/bonsfb337.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number 337.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: Nov 1995
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bon:bonsfb:337

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Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Fax: +49 228 73 6884
Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de

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Keywords: demand for money; European Monetary Union; cointegration;

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References

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  1. Marianne Schulze-Gattas & Anne Marie Gulde, 1992. "Aggregation of Economic Indicators Across Countries," IMF Working Papers 92/36, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  3. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
  4. Monticelli, Carlo & Strauss-Kahn, Marc-Olivier, 1993. "European Integration and the Demand for Broad Money," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(4), pages 345-66, December.
  5. Wesche, Katrin, 1996. "Aggregation Bias in Estimating European Money Demand Functions," Discussion Paper Serie B 393, University of Bonn, Germany.
  6. M. H. Pesaran & R. G. Pierse & M. S. Kumar, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Aggregation in the Context of Linear Prediction Models," UCLA Economics Working Papers 485, UCLA Department of Economics.
  7. Angeloni, Ignazio & Cottarelli, Carlo & Levy, Aviram, 1994. "Cross-border deposits, aggregation, and money demand in the transition to EMU," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 27-54, February.
  8. Jeroen J. M. Kremers & Timothy D. Lane, 1990. "Economic and Monetary Integration and the Aggregate Demand for Money in the EMS," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(4), pages 777-805, December.
  9. Timothy D. Lane & Stephen S. Poloz, 1992. "Currency Substitution and Cross-Border Monetary Aggregation," IMF Working Papers 92/81, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Giucca, P. & Levy, A., 1992. "Monetary Aggregates and Monetary Policy Coordination on the Way to Economi c and Monetary Union: The Role of Cross-Border Deposits," Papers 162, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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  12. Bayoumi, Tamim A & Kenen, Peter B, 1993. "How Useful Is an EC-Wide Monetary Aggregate as an Intermediate Target for Europe?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(3), pages 209-20, October.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  14. Edwards, John B & Orcutt, Guy H, 1969. "Should Aggregation Prior to Estimation Be the Rule?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(4), pages 409-20, November.
  15. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
  16. James M. Boughton, 1991. "Long-Run Money Demand in Large Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 1-32, March.
  17. Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G, 1990. "Testing for Aggregation Bias in Linear Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 137-50, Supplemen.
  18. Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H. & Tieslau, Margie A., 1995. "The stability of long-run money demand in five industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 317-339, April.
  19. Martin Falk & Norbert Funke, 1995. "The stability of money demand in Germany and in the EMS: Impact of German unification," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 470-488, September.
  20. Clive W. J. Granger, 1988. "Aggregation of time series variables-a survey," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Frank Browne & Gabriel Fagan & Jerome Henry, 2005. "Money Demand in EU Countries: A Survey," Macroeconomics 0503004, EconWPA.
  2. Elke Hahn & Christian Müller, 2000. "Money Demand in Europe: Evidence from the Past," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 204, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Carstensen, Kai & Hagen, Jan & Hossfeld, Oliver & Neaves, Abelardo S., 2009. "Money demand stability and inflation prediction in the four largest EMU countries," Munich Reprints in Economics 19946, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  4. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable?: Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 982, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Markus Knell & Helmut Stix, 2003. "How Robustare Money Demand Estimations? A Meta-Analytic Approach," Working Papers 81, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  6. Philip Arestis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2001. "Will the Euro Bring Economic Crisis to Europe?," Macroeconomics 0103003, EconWPA.
  7. K.S.E.M. Hubrich & P.J.G. Vlaar, 2000. "Germany and the euro area: differences in the transmission process of monetary policy," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 613, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  8. Hamori, Shigeyuki & Hamori, Naoko, 2008. "Demand for money in the Euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 274-284, September.
  9. von Hagen, Jürgen & Brückner, Matthias, 2001. "Monetary policy in unknown territory: The European Central Bank in the early years," ZEI Working Papers B 18-2001, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2008:i:4:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Giacomo Sbrana, 2008. "On the use of area-wide models in the Euro-zone," Statistical Methods and Applications, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 499-518, October.
  12. Volker Clausen, 1998. "Money demand and monetary policy in Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 712-740, December.

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