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Asymmetry in the EMS revisited: Evidence from the causality analysis of daily Eurorates

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Author Info

  • Henry, Jerome
  • Jens Weidmann

Abstract

This study uses non-stationary econometrics to analyze asymmetry and dominance within the EMS through interest rate linkages between the French franc, the German deutsche mark and the US dollar. High frequency data (daily Eurorates from April 1983 to the end of 1992) are used for their better suitability to the analysis of the causal linkages. We first show there is a break in the long-run structure of the system of interest rates: two sub-periods are therefore analyzed, before and after German unification. Three types of causality are then studied: causality in short-run dynamics and through long-run exogeneity in the VAR representation as well as neutrality in the MA representation. On both periods, causality tests confirm the French rate is submitted to the German dominance in the short-run. Posterior to the unification, the German interest rate is strongly exogenous, even with respect to the dollar. The neutrality analysis also shows the forces driving the system are the dollar and the DM rates prior to unification, but only the latter afterwards.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number 280.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: May 1994
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bon:bonsfb:280

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Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Fax: +49 228 73 6884
Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de

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Keywords: Asymmetry in the EMS; causality; daily data; cointegration.;

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References

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  1. Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  2. Diebold, Francis X & Gardeazabal, Javier & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1994. " On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 727-35, June.
  3. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
  4. Chow, Gregory C, 1993. "A Two-Step Procedure for Estimating Linear Simultaneous Equations with Unit Roots," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 107-11, February.
  5. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  6. De Grauwe, Paul, 1989. "Is the European Monetary System a DM-Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-61, October.
  8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. B. Mojon, 1999. "Monetary policy under a quasi-fixed exchange rate regime. The case of France between 1987 and 1996," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(211), pages 401-430.
  2. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA.
  3. Velayoudom Marimoutou & Éric Girardin & Christian Bordes, 1996. "Le nouveau SME est-il plus asymétrique que l'ancien ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 175-188.
  4. Merih Uctum, 1996. "European integration and asymmetry in the EMS," Research Paper 9605, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés, . "There was monetary autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU?. The German dominance hypothesis re-examined," Studies on the Spanish Economy 52, FEDEA.
  6. Bruneau, C. & Jondeau, E., 1998. "Long-Run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long-Term Interest Rates," Working papers 53, Banque de France.
  7. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés, 2002. "Was there Monetary Autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU? The German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 185-207, November.
  8. V A Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli, 1995. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targets and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions in OECD Economies"," Working Papers 9606, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 1996.
  9. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando, 2001. "Asymmetry in the EMS: New evidence based on non-linear forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 451-473, March.
  10. De Grauwe, Paul, 1995. "Alternative strategies towards monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 483-491, April.
  11. Guglielmo Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1995. "Inflation convergence in the EMS: Some additional evidence. A reply," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 587-593, September.
  12. Marie Podevin, 2001. "Interaction entre taux d'intérêt allemands et français : un réexamen de l'hypothèse de dominance allemande," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 49-70.
  13. Axel Cron, Jens Weidmann, 1996. "German Unification and the EMS: A Non-Parametric Approach to the Asymmetry Question," Discussion Paper Serie B 353, University of Bonn, Germany.
  14. Forssbaeck, Jens & Oxelheim, Lars, 2005. "On the Link between Exchange-Rate Regimes and Monetary-Policy Autonomy: The European Experience," Working Paper Series 637, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.

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