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Asymmetry in the EMS revisited: Evidence from the causality analysis of daily Eurorates

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Author Info
Henry, Jerome
Jens Weidmann

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Abstract

This study uses non-stationary econometrics to analyze asymmetry and dominance within the EMS through interest rate linkages between the French franc, the German deutsche mark and the US dollar. High frequency data (daily Eurorates from April 1983 to the end of 1992) are used for their better suitability to the analysis of the causal linkages. We first show there is a break in the long-run structure of the system of interest rates: two sub-periods are therefore analyzed, before and after German unification. Three types of causality are then studied: causality in short-run dynamics and through long-run exogeneity in the VAR representation as well as neutrality in the MA representation. On both periods, causality tests confirm the French rate is submitted to the German dominance in the short-run. Posterior to the unification, the German interest rate is strongly exogenous, even with respect to the dollar. The neutrality analysis also shows the forces driving the system are the dollar and the DM rates prior to unification, but only the latter afterwards.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number 280.

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Date of creation: May 1994
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Handle: RePEc:bon:bonsfb:280

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Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany
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Related research
Keywords: Asymmetry in the EMS; causality; daily data; cointegration.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Forssbaeck, Jens & Oxelheim, Lars, 2005. "On the Link between Exchange-Rate Regimes and Monetary-Policy Autonomy: The European Experience," Working Paper Series 637, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & M. Dolores Montávez-Garcés, 2002. "Was there Monetary Autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU? The German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 185-207, November. [Downloadable!]
  3. Guglielmo Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 1995. "Inflation convergence in the EMS: Some additional evidence. A reply," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 587-593, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, . "Non-Linear Forecasting Methods: Some Applications to the Analysis of Financial Series," Working Papers 2002-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  5. V A Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli, 1995. "Institutional Change, Inflation Targets and the Stability of Interest Rate Reaction Functions in OECD Economies"," Working Papers 9606, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 1996. [Downloadable!]
  6. Oscar Bajo & Maria Dolores Montavez, 1999. "There Was Monetary Autonomy In Europe On the Eve Of Emu? The German Dominance Hypothesis Re-Examined," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 9906, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Merih Uctum, 1996. "European integration and asymmetry in the EMS," Research Paper 9605, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Óscar Bajo Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero & Fernando Fernández Rodríguez, 2000. "Asymmetry In The Ems: New Evidence Based On Non-Linear Forecasts," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 0001, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Axel Cron, Jens Weidmann, 1996. "German Unification and the EMS: A Non-Parametric Approach to the Asymmetry Question," Discussion Paper Serie B 353, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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