On the Stability of Log-Normal Interest Rate Models and the Pricing of Eurodollar Futures

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On the Stability of Log-Normal Interest Rate Models and the Pricing of Eurodollar Futures

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D. Sondermann
Sandmann, K.

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Klaus Sandmann

Abstract

The lognormal distribution assumption for the term structure of interest is the most natural way to exclude negative spot and forward rates. However, imposing this assumption on the continuously compounded interest rate has a serious drawback: expected rollover returns are infinite even if the rollover period is arbitrarily short. As a consequence such models cannot price one of the most widely used hedging instrument on the Euromoney market, namely the Eurofuture contract. The purpose of this paper is to show that the problem with lognormal models result from modelling the wrong rate, namely the continuously compounded rate. If instead one models the effective annual rate the problem disappears, i.e. the expected rollover returns are finite. The paper studies the resulting dynamics of the continuously compounded rate which is neither normal nor lognormal. (Completely revised version october 1994)

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Paper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie B with number 263.

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Date of creation: Oct 1994
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Handle: RePEc:bon:bonsfb:263

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
K. Sandmann & Sandmann, K., 1995. "The Direct Approach to Debt Option Pricing," Discussion Paper Serie B 212, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-92. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Ciurlia, Pierangelo & Gheno, Andrea, 2008. "A model for pricing real estate derivatives with stochastic interest rates," MPRA Paper 9924, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Ram Bhar & Carl Chiarella & Hing Hung & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2004. "The Volatility of the Instantaneous Spot Interest Rate Implied by Arbitrage Pricing - A Dynamic Bayesian Approach," Finance 0409002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Goldys, B. & M. Musiela & D. Sondermann, 1996. "Lognormality of Rates and Term Structure Models," Discussion Paper Serie B 394, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Albanese, Claudio, 2007. "Callable Swaps, Snowballs And Videogames," MPRA Paper 5229, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]

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