A more robust definition of subjective probability
AbstractThe goal of choice-theoretic derivations of subjective probability is to separate a decisionmaker's underlying beliefs (subjective probabilities of events) from their preferences (attitudes toward risk). Classical derivations have all relied upon some form of the Marschak-Samuelson "Independence Axiom" or the Savage "Sure-Thing Principle," which imply that preferences over lotteries conform to the expected utility hypothesis. This paper presents a choice-theoretic derivation of subjective probability in a Savage-type setting of purely subjective uncertainty, which neither assumes nor implies that the decisionmaker's preferences over lotteries necessarily conform to the expected utility hypothesis. Copyright 1992 by The Econometric Society.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Discussion Paper Serie A with number 365.
Date of creation: Jul 1991
Date of revision:
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Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany
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Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de
Subjective probability; Uncertainity; Subjective Uncertainity; Non- expected utility theory; Expected utility theory; Leonard J. Savage;
Other versions of this item:
- Machina, Mark J & Schmeidler, David, 1992. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 745-80, July.
- Mark J. Machina & David Schmeidler, 1990. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Discussion Paper Serie A 306, University of Bonn, Germany.
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