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The Implied Equity Risk Premium - An Evaluation of Empirical Methods

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Author Info
David Schröder
Abstract

A new approach of estimating a forward-looking equity risk premium (ERP) is to calculate the implied risk premium using present value (PV) formulas. This paper compares implied risk premia obtained from dierent PV models and evaluates them by analyzing their underlying firmspecific cost-of-capital estimates. It is shown that specific versions of dividend discount models (DDM) and residual income models (RIM) lead to similar ERP estimates. However, the results of cross-sectional regression tests of individual firm risk suggest that there are qualitative dierences between both approaches. Expected firm risk obtained from the DDM is more in line with standard asset pricing models and performs better in predicting future stock returns than estimates from the RIM.

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File URL: ftp://web.bgse.uni-bonn.de/pub/RePEc/bon/bonedp/bgse13_2005.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Bonn Econ Discussion Papers with number bgse13_2005.

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Length: 35
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bon:bonedp:bgse13_2005

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Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Fax: +49 228 73 9221
Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de/index.php?id=494

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Related research
Keywords: equity risk premium; cost of capital; expected stock returns;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. M. C. Freeman, I. R. Davidson, 1999. "Estimating the equity premium," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 236-246, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Peter Easton, 2002. "Using Forecasts of Earnings to Simultaneously Estimate Growth and the Rate of Return on Equity Investment," Journal of Accounting Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 657-676, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert S.Harris & Felicia C. Marston, 1992. "Estimating Shareholder Risk Premia Using Analysts' Growth Forecasts," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 21(2), Summer.
  7. Gordon M. Bodnar & Bernard Dumas & Richard D. Marston, 2003. "Cross-Border Valuation: The International Cost of Equity Capital," NBER Working Papers 10115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Aswath Damodaran, 1999. "Estimating Equity Risk Premiums," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-021, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bodnar, Gordon & Dumas, Bernard & Marston, Richard, 2003. "Cross-Border Valuation: The International Cost of Equity Capital," Working Papers 03-3, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
  10. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1993. "Movements in the Equity Premium," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-2), pages 75-138. [Downloadable!]
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