Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation
AbstractMany information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, the news media being a prime example. This paper shows experimentally that in such context many people neglect these correlations in the updating process and treat correlated information as independent. In consequence, people’s beliefs are excessively sensitive to well-conncected information sources, implying a pattern of “overshooting” beliefs. Additionally, in an experimental asset market, correlation neglect not only drives overoptimism and overpessimism at the individual level, but also affects aggregate outcomes in a systematic manner. In particular, the excessive confidence swings caused by correlated signals give rise to predictable price bubbles and cashes. These findings are reminiscent of popular narratives according to which aggregate booms and busts might be driven by the spread of “stories”. Our results also lend direct support to recent models of boundedly rational social learning.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Bonn Econ Discussion Papers with number bgse04_2013.
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Fax: +49 228 73 6884
Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de
Beliefs; Correlation Neglect; Experiments; Markets; Overshooting;
Other versions of this item:
- Benjamin Enke & Florian Zimmermann, 2013. "Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation," CESifo Working Paper Series 4483, CESifo Group Munich.
- Enke, Benjamin & Zimmermann, Florian, 2013. "Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79900, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Enke, Benjamin & Zimmermann, Florian, 2013. "Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation," IZA Discussion Papers 7372, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
- D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics; Underlying Principles
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-06-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-EXP-2013-06-04 (Experimental Economics)
- NEP-NEU-2013-06-04 (Neuroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gneezy, U. & Kapteyn, A. & Potters, J.J.M., 2002.
"Evaluation Periods and Asset Prices in a Market Experiment,"
2002-8, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Uri Gneezy & Arie Kapteyn & Jan Potters, 2003. "Evaluation Periods and Asset Prices in a Market Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 821-838, 04.
- Uri Gneezy & Arie Kapteyn & Jan Potters, 2002. "Evaluation Periods and Assett Prices in a Market Experiment," Working Papers 02-02, RAND Corporation Publications Department.
- Tim Grebe & Julia Schmid & Andreas Stiehler, 2006.
"Do Individuals Recognize Cascade Behavior of Others? - An Experimental Study -,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2006-079, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Grebe, Tim & Schmid, Julia & Stiehler, Andreas, 2008. "Do individuals recognize cascade behavior of others? - An experimental study," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 197-209, April.
- Grebe, Tim & Schmid, Julia & Stiehler, Andreas, 2006. "Do individuals recognize cascade behavior of others? An Experimental Study," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 180, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2012.
"Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1243-1285.
- Shleifer, Andrei & Bordalo, Pedro & Gennaioli, Nicola, 2012. "Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk," Scholarly Articles 10636303, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2010. "Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk," NBER Working Papers 16387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, . "Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk," Working Paper 29210, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Andrei Shleifer & Nicola Gennaioli & Pedro Bordalo, 2011. "Salience theory of choice under risk," 2011 Meeting Papers 1442, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2009.
"Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases,"
0465, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2008. "Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases," IZA Discussion Papers 3481, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2008. "Cognitive Abilities and Behavioral Biases," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 08-05, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Corazzini, Luca & Pavesi, Filippo & Petrovich, Beatrice & Stanca, Luca, 2012.
"Influential listeners: An experiment on persuasion bias in social networks,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1276-1288.
- Luca Corazzini & Filippo Pavesi & Beatrice Petrovich & Luca Stanca, 2010. "Influential Listeners: An Experiment on Persuasion Bias in Social Networks," Working Papers 196, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2010.
- Brian D. Kluger & Steve B. Wyatt, 2004. "Are Judgment Errors Reflected in Market Prices and Allocations? Experimental Evidence Based on the Monty Hall Problem," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 969-998, 06.
- Selten, Reinhard, 1996.
"Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule,"
Discussion Paper Serie B
390, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Reinhard Selten, 1998. "Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 43-61, June.
- repec:kap:expeco:v:1:y:1998:i:1:p:43-62 is not listed on IDEAS
- Camerer, Colin F, 1987. "Do Biases in Probability Judgment Matter in Markets? Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 981-97, December.
- Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
- George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
- Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
- Bormann, Sven-Kristjan, 2013. "Sentiment indices on financial markets: What do they measure?," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-58, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Pietro Ortoleva & Erik Snowberg, 2013. "Overconfidence in Political Behavior," NBER Working Papers 19250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (BGSE Office).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.