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Sovereign Borrowing, Financial Assistance and Debt Repudiation

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  • Florian Kirsch

    ()

  • Ronald Rühmkorf

    ()

Abstract

Official lenders provide financial assistance to countries that face sovereign debt crisis. The availability of financial assistance has counteracting effects on the default incentives of governments. On the one hand, financial assistance can help to avoid defaults by bridging times of fundamental crises or resolving coordination failures among private investors. On the other hand, the insurance effect of financial assistance lowers borrowing costs which induces the sovereign to accumulate higher debt levels. To assess the overall effect of financial assistance on the probability of default we construct a quantitative model of endogenous credit structure and sovereign default that allows for self-fulfilling expectations of default. Calibrating the model to Argentinean data we find that the availability of financial assistance reduces the number of defaults that occur due to self-fulfilling runs by private investors. However, at the same time it raises average debt levels causing an overall increase of the probability of default.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Bonn, Germany in its series Bonn Econ Discussion Papers with number bgse01_2013.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bon:bonedp:bgse01_2013

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Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Fax: +49 228 73 6884
Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de

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Keywords: Sovereign debt; Sovereign default; Self-fulfilling runs; Bailout;

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References

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