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Equilibrium Land Prices of Japanese Prefectures: A Panel Cointegration Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Takashi Nagahata

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Yumi Saita

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Toshitaka Sekine

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Towa Tachibana

    (Kobe University)

Abstract

Based on newly constructed prefectural land price data, we estimate long-run equilibrium relationships using a panel cointegration analysis, and then estimate an error-correction model (ECM) for land prices. The panel cointegration analysis reveals that the PVR cum price expectation can be regarded as a long-run equilibrium relationship. The ECM finds that deviations from the long-run equilibrium and non-performing loans in particular have sizable effects on land prices. Moreover, recent regional discrepancies in land prices are closely related to deviations from the long-run equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Takashi Nagahata & Yumi Saita & Toshitaka Sekine & Towa Tachibana, 2004. "Equilibrium Land Prices of Japanese Prefectures: A Panel Cointegration Analysis," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:boj:bojwps:04-e-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2013. "Liquidity, Trends and the Great Recession," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 015, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Koji Nakamura & Yumi Saita, 2007. "Land Prices and Fundamentals," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-8, Bank of Japan.
    3. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," CARF F-Series CARF-F-334, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    4. Chien-Wen Yang & Fang-Ni Chu & Wan-I Chen & Ming-Chi Chen, 2022. "Willingness to Purchase a House during Economic Lost Decades in Japanese Urban Housing Market," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 25(3), pages 333-370.
    5. Koichiro Kamada & Wataru Hirata & Hajime Wago, 2007. "Determinants of Land-Price Movements in Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    6. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:4:p:407-421 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Yumi Saita & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," Working Papers e068, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    8. Karol Jan Borowiecki, 2009. "The Determinants of House Prices and Construction: An Empirical Investigation of the Swiss Housing Economy," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 12(3), pages 193-220.
    9. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Ryo Jinnai, 2013. "Liquidity, Trends and the Great Recession," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 015, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    10. Saita, Yumi & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2013. "Aging and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from Japanese and US Regional Data," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 2, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Beatriz Larraz-Iribas & Jose-Luis Alfaro-Navarro, 2008. "Asymmetric Behaviour of Spanish Regional House Prices," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(4), pages 407-421, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    land price; present value relation; panel cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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