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Investment strategy and Greek shipping earnings: exploring the pre & post "ordering-frenzy" period

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  • Zacharias G. Bragoudakis

    ()
    (Bank of Greece and University of the Aegean)

  • Stelios Panagiotou

    (Bank of Greece)

  • Helen Thanopoulou

    (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

The influx of shipping receipts from the world's leading fleet has been critical for the development of the modern Greek economy. Following the fateful September of 2008, the range and speed of the shift in direction of the freight rates, combined with the general economic and credit climate, have had a significant impact on Greek receipts from shipping. The paper explores the short-term - vis-à-vis - the long-term response of shipping-related flows in the Greek balance of payments on the basis of monthly data. It also evaluates the role of the change in Greek ship-owners’ investment strategies from 2006 onwards. To this end, the authors model the impact of freight market fluctuations through a Greek shipping freight rate index that they have calculated, loans outstanding and the value of ships on inflows and outflows from shipping. The findings provide evidence in favour of a change in the investment behaviour of the Greek shipping companies. Inflows and outflows tend to be dictated partly by the cash-flow position of the companies involved in the S&P market, as indicated by the positive relationship with freight rates

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 157.

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Length: 39
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:157

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Keywords: Investment Strategy; Greece; Shipping Earnings; Balance of Payments; Shipping Services; Error Correction Model.;

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  1. Grammenos, C.Th. & Nomikos, N.K. & Papapostolou, N.C., 2008. "Estimating the probability of default for shipping high yield bond issues," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1123-1138, November.
  2. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. S D Tsolakis & C Cridland & H E Haralambides, 2003. "Econometric Modelling of Second-hand Ship Prices," Maritime Economics and Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(4), pages 347-377, December.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
  5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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