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Fundamental inflation uncertainty

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  • Charlotta Groth
  • Jarkko Jääskelä
  • Paolo Surico

Abstract

We develop a method of quantifying the uncertainty surrounding the estimates of the fundamental inflation implied by the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The uncertainty is represented as a band around the fundamental inflation, and encompasses the sampling uncertainty of both the estimates of the structural parameters and the estimates of the VAR used to form a projection of real marginal costs. An empirical application on UK and US data confirms that fundamental inflation tracks actual inflation reasonably well in both countries. For the United Kingdom the confidence band is sufficiently narrow, relative to the sample variance of inflation, to identify a number of periods where the predictions of the NKPC do not fully capture movements in actual inflation. In contrast, considerable uncertainty surrounds the estimates of fundamental inflation for the United States.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 309.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:309

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  1. Tim W. Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2005. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Working Papers 510, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  2. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Favero, Carlo A., 2006. "Taylor rules and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1377-1393, October.
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  7. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & David López-Salido, 2005. "Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0520, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 293-318, June.
  10. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2005. "The U.K.'s rocky road to stability," Working Papers 2005-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  11. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2003. "Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/03, Central Bank of Ireland.
  12. Ravi Balakrishnan & J David Lopez-Salido, 2002. "Understanding UK inflation: the role of openness," Bank of England working papers 164, Bank of England.
  13. Kurmann, Andre, 2005. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the fit of a new Keynesian pricing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1119-1134, September.
  14. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Güneş Kamber & Stephen Millard, 2010. "Using estimated models to assess nominal and real rigidities in the United Kingdom," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2010/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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