Fiscal rules for debt sustainability in emerging markets: the impact of volatility and default risk
AbstractThe determinants of public debt dynamics – real interest rates, the real exchange rate, output growth and the primary fiscal balance – are typically more volatile in emerging market economies than in industrialised countries. Capital markets also typically demand higher interest rates from emerging markets when their debt dynamics deteriorate. This paper considers how these characteristics affect the choice of fiscal policy rules in emerging markets. We estimate an econometric model of the determinants of public debt dynamics on Brazilian data and use this model to simulate the effect of different fiscal policy rules for future paths of debt. We then derive the set of fiscal policy rules which stabilise public debt dynamics. We find that macroeconomic forecast uncertainty and feedback among the endogenous variables (principally from the debt-GDP ratio to interest rates) force the policy rule to be significantly more responsive to changes in public debt. Rules that would stabilise debt in a fully known world may not do so when the policymaker is faced with a realistic pattern of shocks. The method we employ may be a useful addition to the toolkit of domestic and international policymakers when assessing fiscal rules and debt sustainability.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 307.
Date of creation: Sep 2006
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-12-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-12-01 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CFN-2006-12-01 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2006-12-01 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PBE-2006-12-01 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- George Kopits & Steven A. Symansky, 1998. "Fiscal Policy Rules," IMF Occasional Papers 162, International Monetary Fund.
- Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2006.
"Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(3), pages 3.
- Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund.
- Fischer, S. & Cooper, R.N. & Dornbusch, R. & Garber, P.M. & Massad, C. & Polak, J.J. & Rodrik, D. & Tarapore, S.S., 1998. "Should the IMF Pursue Capital-Account Convertibility?," Princeton Essays in International Economics 207, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
- Carrera, Claudia Martínez & Vergara, Rodrigo, 2012. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Shocks on Debt Valuation, Interest Rates and GDP Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1762-1783.
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