The UK labour force participation rate: business cycle and trend influences
AbstractIn this paper the extent to which recent patterns in UK labour force participation have been influenced by trend and business cycle factors is investigated. A modelling strategy is proposed that pools the available micro and aggregate-level data, to produce a mutually consistent model of the trend and cyclical components of participation. A significant procyclical pattern is established, but some distinct trend influences on the participation rate are also identified. The approach allows for the construction of forecasts, which would be a useful input into the sort of macroeconometric models used by policymakers. The model outperforms some conventional macroeconometric forecasts in out-of-sample forecast tests.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 228.
Date of creation: Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Publications Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-MAC-2004-11-07 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blundell, Richard & Meghir, Costas & Symons, Elizabeth & Walker, Ian, 1988. "Labour supply specification and the evaluation of tax reforms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 23-52, June.
- Briscoe, G. & Wilson, R., 1992. "Forecasting economic activity rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 201-217, October.
- Brian Bell & James Smith, 2004. "Health, disability insurance and labour force participation," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 218, Bank of England.
- M. Keane & R. Mofitt, 1995.
"A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply,"
95-4, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert, 1998. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 553-89, August.
- Michael P. Keane & Robert Moffitt, 1995. "A structural model of multiple welfare program participation and labor supply," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 557, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- M. Keane & R. Moffitt, . "A structural model of multiple welfare program participation and labor supply," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty 1080-96, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
- Chinhui Juhn & Kevin Murphy & Robert Topel, 2002. "Current Unemployment, Historically Contemplated," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 79-136.
- Joanne Cutler & Kenny Turnbull, 2001. "A Disaggregated Approach to Modelling UK Labour Force Participation," Discussion Papers, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England 04, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
- Brian Bell & James Smith, 2002. "On gross worker flows in the United Kingdom: evidence from the Labour Force Survey," Bank of England working papers, Bank of England 160, Bank of England.
- Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Team).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.