Caution and gradualism in monetary policy under uncertainty

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Caution and gradualism in monetary policy under uncertainty

Author Info

Ben Martin

Abstract

This paper explores the theoretical implication of parameter uncertainty for the optimal monetary policy reaction function. The policy-maker sets the nominal interest rate to meet an inflation target in a simple dynamic model of the economy. The paper looks at how parameter uncertainty in the transmission mechanism affects the optimal nominal and real interest rate relative to the case when the parameters are known. Its chief contribution is to show that three consequences are identified: conservatism (smaller deviations of real and nominal interest rates from some neutral level in response to inflationary shocks), gradualism (increased autocorrelation in real and nominal interest rates) and caution (a smaller cumulative policy response). The paper examines the sensitivity of these effects to different specifications of the transmission mechanism; in particular the introduction of an exchange rate channel. The paper also considers situations in which a more aggressive response may be called for.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 105.

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Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:105

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2001-10-01 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2001-10-01 (Central Banking)
NEP-IFN-2001-10-01 (International Finance)
NEP-MON-2001-10-01 (Monetary Economics)

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Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.," Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Seminar Papers 666, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Brian Sack, 1998. "Does the Fed act gradually? a VAR analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
Other versions:
- Rudebusch, G.D. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," Papers 637, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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Other versions:
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," NBER Working Papers 5962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Other versions:
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Seminar Papers 615, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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- Lars E O Svensson, . "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
Geoffrey Shuetrim & Christopher Thompson, 2003. "The Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(246), pages 370-379, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Geoffrey Shuetrim & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-10, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
Alexei Onatski & James H. Stock, 1999. "Robust monetary policy under model uncertainty in a small model of the U.S. economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
Other versions:
- Alexei Onatski & James H. Stock, 2000. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty in a Small Model of the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 7490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Onatski, Alexei & Stock, James H., 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty In A Small Model Of The U.S. Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 85-110, February. [Downloadable!]
Goodfriend, Marvin, 1991. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 7-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Marvin Goodfriend, 1990. "Interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy," Working Paper 90-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]

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