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Modelling the distribution of mortgage debt

Author

Listed:
  • Levina, Iren

    (Bank of England)

  • Sturrock, Robert

    (Bank of England)

  • Varadi, Alexandra

    (Wadham College, Oxford)

  • Wallis, Gavin

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper presents an approach to modelling the flow and the stock of mortgage debt, using loan‑level data. Our approach allows us to consider different macroeconomic scenarios for the housing market, lenders’ and borrowers’ behaviour, and different calibrations of macroprudential policy interventions in a consistent way. This, in turn, allows us to take a forward-looking view about potential risks stemming from the distribution of mortgage debt, as well as assess the impact of potential macroprudential policies in a forward‑looking manner.

Suggested Citation

  • Levina, Iren & Sturrock, Robert & Varadi, Alexandra & Wallis, Gavin, 2019. "Modelling the distribution of mortgage debt," Bank of England working papers 808, Bank of England.
    • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0808
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    2. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007–09," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 74-117, August.
    3. Moritz Schularick & Alan Taylor & Oscar Jorda, 2016. "The Great Mortgaging," 2016 Meeting Papers 185, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Matija Lozej & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of the LTV and LTI ratios in Ireland," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(21), pages 1507-1511, December.
    5. Chakraborty, Chiranjit & Gimpelewicz, Mariana & Uluc, Arzu, 2017. "A tiger by the tail: estimating the UK mortgage market vulnerabilities from loan-level data," Bank of England working papers 703, Bank of England.
    6. Anna Zabai, 2017. "Household debt: recent developments and challenges," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Jiri Gregor & Hana Hejlova, 2020. "The household stress test," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,, Czech National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage market; housing market; macroprudential policy; loan‑level data; flow model; stock model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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