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GDP-linked bonds and sovereign default

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  • Barr, David

    (Bank of England)

  • Bush, Oliver

    (Bank of England)

  • Pienkowski, Alex

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

Using a calibrated model of endogenous sovereign default, we explore how GDP-linked bonds can raise the maximum sustainable debt level of a government, and substantially reduce the incidence of default. The model explores both the costs (in particular the GDP risk premium) and the benefits of issuing GDP-linked bonds. It concludes that significant welfare gains can be achieved by indexing debt to GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Barr, David & Bush, Oliver & Pienkowski, Alex, 2014. "GDP-linked bonds and sovereign default," Bank of England working papers 484, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0484
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dvorkin, Maximiliano & Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2022. "Improving sovereign debt restructurings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Miller, Marcus & Thomas, Dania, 2013. "Eurozone Sovereign Debt Restructuring: promising legal prospects?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 144, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    4. Sarah Mouabbi & Jean-Paul Renne & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2021. "Debt-Stabilizing Properties of GDP-Linked Securities: A Macro-Finance Perspective," Working papers 844, Banque de France.
    5. United Nations Development Programme UNDP, 2015. "Can GDP-Linked Official Lending to Emerging Economies and Developing Countries Enhance Risk Management and Resilience?," Working Papers id:7147, eSocialSciences.
    6. Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2014. "Saving the Euro: Self-fulfilling Crisis and the “Draghi Put”," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Daniel Heymann (ed.), Life After Debt, chapter 4, pages 227-241, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Eguren Martin, Fernando & Meldrum, Andrew & Yan, Wen, 2021. "No-Arbitrage pricing of GDP-Linked bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Harris Ntantanis & Lawrence Pohlman, 2020. "Market implied GDP," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(7), pages 636-646, December.
    9. Sayantan Ghosal & Marcus Miller & Kannika Thampanishvong, 2019. "Waiting for a haircut? A bargaining perspective on sovereign debt restructuring," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 405-420.
    10. Diana Bonfim & David Pereira, 2018. "GDP-linked bonds: design, effects, and way forward," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Marco Meyer, 2021. "Dealing fairly with trade imbalances in monetary unions," Politics, Philosophy & Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 45-66, February.
    12. Christophe Destais, 2017. "Are State-Contingent Sovereign Bonds the Solution to Avoid Government Debt Crisis?," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-19, CEPII research center.
    13. Jean-Marc Fournier & Jakob Lehr, 2018. "Issuing GDP-linked bonds: Supply and demand can match," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1500, OECD Publishing.
    14. Antoine Levy & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Alejandro M. Werner, 2020. "The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 2020/220, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Yongo Kwon, 2019. "Nominal GDP growth indexed bonds: Business Cycle and Welfare Effects within the Framework of New Keynesian DSGE model," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 504, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    16. Marcus Miller & Dania Thomas, 2013. "Eurozone sovereign debt restructuring: keeping the vultures at bay," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 745-763, WINTER.
    17. Nicolas Carnot & Stéphanie Pamies Sumner, 2017. "GDP-linked Bonds: Some Simulations on EU Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 073, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Kalamov, Zarko Y. & Zimmermann, Karl J., 2023. "GDP-linked bonds and economic growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Gianni Vaggi, 2018. "Development Finance in the age of Financial Mercantilism," DEM Working Papers Series 157, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    20. van Riet, Ad, 2017. "Addressing the safety trilemma: a safe sovereign asset for the eurozone," ESRB Working Paper Series 35, European Systemic Risk Board.
    21. Pablo A. Gluzmann & Martin M. Guzman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2018. "An Analysis of Puerto Rico's Debt Relief Needs to Restore Debt Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 25256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Olivier J. Blanchard & Paolo Mauro & Julien Acalin, 2016. "The Case for Growth-Indexed Bonds in Advanced Economies Today," Policy Briefs PB16-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    23. Gianni Vaggi, 2015. "Development and the post-2015 challenges: making the Sustainable Development Goals work," DEM Working Papers Series 107, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    24. Joel Bowman & Philip Naylor, 2016. "GDP-linked Bonds," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 61-68, September.
    25. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2013. "Fiscal consolidation: Dr Pangloss meets Mr Keynes," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 159, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; contingent pricing; debt management; sovereign debt; sovereign default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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