AbstractWe derive a new family of probability densities that have the property of closed-form integrability. This flexible family finds a variety of applications, of which we illustrate density forecasting from models of the AR-ARCH class for U.S. inflation. We find that the hypernormal distribution for the model's disturbances leads to better density forecasts than the ones produced under the assumption that the disturbances are Normal or Student's t.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 584.
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2002
Date of revision:
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Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
More information through EDIRC
ARMA-GARCH models; neural networks; nonparametric density estimation; forecast accuracy;
Other versions of this item:
- Raffaella Giacomini & Andreas Gottschling & Christian Haefke & Halbert White, 2002. "Hypernormal densities," Economics Working Papers 638, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Haefke, Christian & White, Halbert & Gottschling, Andreas, 2002. "Hypernormal Densities," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9wr373nt, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-11-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2003-11-03 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2003-11-03 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-MFD-2003-11-03 (Microfinance)
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