Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A Markov-switching structural investigation
AbstractDo central banks respond to exchange rate movements? According to Lubik and Schorfheide (2007) who estimate structural general equilibrium models with monetary policy rules, the answer is "Yes, some do". However, their analysis is based on a sample with multiple regime changes, which may bias the results. We revisit their original question using a Markov switching set up which explicitly allows for parameter changes. Fitting the data from four small open economies to the model, we find that the size of policy responses, and the volatility of structural shocks, have not stayed constant during the sample period (1982-2011). In particular, central banks in Sweden and the UK switched from a high response to the exchange rate in the 1980s and early 1990s, to a low response some time after inflation targeting was implemented. Canada also observed a regime change, but the decline in the exchange rate response was small relative to the increase in the response to inflation and output. Norway, on the other hand, did not observe a shift in the policy response over time, as the central bank has stayed in a regime of high exchange rate response prior and post implementing inflation targeting.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2013/24.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 10 Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Monetary policy; Exchange rates; Inflation targeting; Markov switching; Small open economy;
Other versions of this item:
- Ragna Alstadheim & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Junior Maih, 2013. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Markow-Switching Structural Investigation," Working Papers 0018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-10-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-10-18 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2013-10-18 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-10-18 (Monetary Economics)
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