Estimated U.S. Manufacturing Production Capital and Technology Based on an Estimated Dynamic Structural Economic Model
AbstractProduction capital and total factor productivity or technology are fundamental to understanding output and productivity growth, but are unobserved except at disaggregated levels and must be estimated before being used in empirical analysis. In this paper, we develop estimates of production capital and technology for U.S. total manufacturing based on an estimated dynamic structural economic model. First, using annual U.S. total manufacturing data for 1947-1997, we estimate by maximum likelihood a dynamic structural economic model of a representative production firm. In the estimation, capital and technology are completely unobserved or latent variables. Then, we apply the Kalman filter to the estimated model and the data to compute estimates of model-based capital and technology for the sample. Finally, we describe and evaluate similarities and differences between the model-based and standard estimates of capital and technology reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in its series Working Papers with number 429.
Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2 Massachusetts Avenue, N.E. Room 2860, Washington, D. C. 20212
Phone: (202) 606-5900
Fax: (202) 606-7890
Web page: http://www.bls.gov
More information through EDIRC
Kalman filter estimation of latent variables;
Other versions of this item:
- Chen, Baoline & Zadrozny, Peter A., 2009. "Estimated U.S. manufacturing production capital and technology based on an estimated dynamic structural economic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1398-1418, July.
- C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
- C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
- D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
- L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2010-04-17 (Business Economics)
- NEP-EFF-2010-04-17 (Efficiency & Productivity)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Gordon, 2000.
"Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?,"
NBER Working Papers
7833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
- Gordon, Robert J, 2000. "Does the 'New Economy' Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2607, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Daniel Levy & Haiwei Chen, 2005.
"Estimates of the Aggregate Quarterly Capital Stock for the Post- War U.S. Economy,"
0505008, EconWPA, revised 16 May 2005.
- Levy, Daniel & Chen, Haiwei, 1994. "Estimates of the Aggregate Quarterly Capital Stock for the Post-war U.S. Economy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 40(3), pages 317-49, September.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Adams, James D, 1990. "Fundamental Stocks of Knowledge and Productivity Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 673-702, August.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000.
"The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story?,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 3-22, Fall.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: is information technology the story?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The resurgence of growth in the late 1990s: is information technology the story?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- M. Ishaq Nadiri & Ingmar Prucha, 2001. "Dynamic Factor Demand Models and Productivity Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 103-172 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982.
"Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Web interface for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Executable program for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Kevin J. Stiroh, 2001. "What drives productivity growth?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Mar, pages 37-59.
- Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1973. "Transcendental Logarithmic Production Frontiers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(1), pages 28-45, February.
- Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D., 1982. "Kalman filtering estimation of unobserved rational expectations with an application to the German hyperinflation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 255-284, November.
- Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1996.
"Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change,"
RCER Working Papers
420, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-62, June.
- Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z. & Krusell, P., 1995. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9510, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Hamilton, James D, 1985. "Uncovering Financial Market Expectations of Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1224-41, December.
- Cabalero, R.J., 1997.
97-20, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Zadrozny, Peter A, 1997. " An Econometric Analysis of Polish Inflation Dynamics with Learning about Rational Expectations," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2-3), pages 221-38.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
- Hall, Robert E, 1973. "The Specification of Technology with Several Kinds of Output," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 878-92, July-Aug..
- Zadrozny, Peter, 1988. "Gaussian Likelihood of Continuous-Time ARMAX Models When Data Are Stocks and Flows at Different Frequencies," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(01), pages 108-124, April.
- Daniel Levy, 2005.
"Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series,"
0505006, EconWPA, revised 16 May 2005.
- Daniel Levy, 2000. "Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 100-137, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Gregory Kurtzon).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.