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China's socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model

Author

Listed:
  • Xiao-Chen Yuan
  • Xun Sun
  • Upmanu Lall
  • Zhi-Fu Mi
  • Jun He
  • Yi-Ming Wei

    (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology)

Abstract

China has a large economic and demographic exposure to extreme events that is increasing rapidly due to its fast development, and climate change may further aggravate the situation. This paper investigates China's socioeconomic risk from extreme events under climate change over the next few decades with a focus on sub-national heterogeneity. The empirical relationships between socioeconomic damages and their determinants are identified using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, and are used to estimate future damages as well as associated uncertainty bounds given specified climate and development scenarios. Considering projected changes in exposure we find that the southwest and central regions and Hainan Island of China are likely to have a larger percentage of population at risk, while most of the southwest and central regions could generally have higher economic losses. Finally, the analysis suggests that increasing income can significantly decrease the number of people affected by extremes.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun & Upmanu Lall & Zhi-Fu Mi & Jun He & Yi-Ming Wei, 2017. "China's socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 107, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.
    • Handle: RePEc:biw:wpaper:107
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    File URL: http://ceep.bit.edu.cn/docs/2018-10/20181012075455137115.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Cristian Rogério Foguesatto & Felipe Dalzotto Artuzo & Edson Talamini & João Armando Dessimon Machado, 2020. "Understanding the divergences between farmer’s perception and meteorological records regarding climate change: a review," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun, 2019. "Climate change impacts on socioeconomic damages from weather-related events in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1197-1213, December.
    3. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yi-Ming Wei & Bing Wang & Jing Meng & Zhu Liu & Yuli Shan & Jingru Liu & Dabo Guan, 2017. "Socioeconomic impact assessment of China's CO2 emissions peak prior to 2030," CEEP-BIT Working Papers 103, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    socioeconomic risk; hierarchical Bayesian; natural disasters; climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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