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What drives the current account in commodity exporting countries? The cases of Chile and New Zealand

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  • Juan Pablo Medina
  • Anella Munro
  • Claudio Soto

Abstract

This paper uses an open economy DSGE model with a commodity sector and nominal and real rigidities to ask what factors account for current account developments in two small commodity exporting countries. We estimate the model, using Bayesian techniques, on Chilean and on New Zealand data, and investigate the structural factors that explain the behaviour of the two countries' current accounts. We find that foreign financial conditions, investment-specific shocks, and foreign demand account for the bulk of the variation of the current accounts of the two countries. In the case of New Zealand fluctuations in commodity export prices have also been important. Monetary and fiscal policy shocks (deviations from policy rules) are estimated to have relatively small e ects on the current account.We find interesting differences in Chilean and New Zealand responses to some shocks, despite similarities between the two economies and the common structural model employed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 247.

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Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:247

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Keywords: current account; commodity price; small open economy; DSGE model;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Camilo E Tovar, 2008. "DSGE models and central banks," BIS Working Papers 258, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Chris Bloor & Rebecca Craigie & Anella Munro, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of a stable funding requirement," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2012/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Paul Cashin & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 11/195, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Juan Pablo Medina & Anella Munro & Claudio Soto, 2007. "What Drives the Current Account in Commodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 447, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Andrew Filardo & Jason George & Mico Loretan & Guonan Ma & Anella Munro & Ilhyock Shim & Philip Wooldridge & James Yetman & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "The international financial crisis: timeline, impact and policy responses in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 21-82 Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "The Chilean Business Cycles Through the Lens of a Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 457, Central Bank of Chile.

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