Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

What drives the current account in commodity exporting countries? The cases of Chile and New Zealand

Contents:

Author Info

  • Juan Pablo Medina
  • Anella Munro
  • Claudio Soto

Abstract

This paper uses an open economy DSGE model with a commodity sector and nominal and real rigidities to ask what factors account for current account developments in two small commodity exporting countries. We estimate the model, using Bayesian techniques, on Chilean and on New Zealand data, and investigate the structural factors that explain the behaviour of the two countries' current accounts. We find that foreign financial conditions, investment-specific shocks, and foreign demand account for the bulk of the variation of the current accounts of the two countries. In the case of New Zealand fluctuations in commodity export prices have also been important. Monetary and fiscal policy shocks (deviations from policy rules) are estimated to have relatively small e ects on the current account.We find interesting differences in Chilean and New Zealand responses to some shocks, despite similarities between the two economies and the common structural model employed.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work247.pdf
File Function: Full PDF document
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work247.htm
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 247.

as in new window
Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:247

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centralbahnplatz 2, CH - 4002 Basel
Phone: (41) 61 - 280 80 80
Fax: (41) 61 - 280 91 00
Email:
Web page: http://www.bis.org/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: current account; commodity price; small open economy; DSGE model;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Juan Pablo Medina & Anella Munro & Claudio Soto, 2008. "What Drives the Current Account in Comodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, Central Bank of Chile, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmid (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 10, pages 369-434 Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Emerging market business cycles: the cycle is the trend," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  3. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," CEG Working Papers, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics 20012, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  5. David Hargreaves, 2003. "Monetary policy and the volatility of real exchange rates in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 66, pages 2, September.
  6. Ken West, 2003. "Monetary policy and the volatility of real exchange rates in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  7. Altig, David & Christiano, Lawrence & Eichenbaum, Martin & Lindé, Jesper, 2004. "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle," Working Paper Series 176, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  8. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  9. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2006. "Business cycle accounting," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 328, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2003. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2003-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 2000. "The role of investment-specific technological change in the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 91-115, January.
  13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  14. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Philip Liu, 2006. "A Small New Keynesian Model of the New Zealand economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  16. Juan Pablo Medina & Rodrigo Valdés, 2000. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules when the Current Account Matters," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 77, Central Bank of Chile.
  17. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  18. Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo & Juan Pablo Medina, 2007. "New Keynesian Models for Chile in the Inflation-Targeting Period," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, Central Bank of Chile, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 13, pages 507-546 Central Bank of Chile.
  19. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "Copper Price, Fiscal Policu and Business Cycle in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 458, Central Bank of Chile.
  20. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  21. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  22. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  24. Kelly Eckhold & Chris Hunt, 2005. "The Reserve Bank's new foreign exchange intervention policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 68, March.
  25. David Altig & Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Jesper Linde, 2005. "Online Appendix to "Firm-Specific Capital, Nominal Rigidities and the Business Cycle"," Technical Appendices 09-191, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  26. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
  27. DeJong, David N. & Ingram, Beth F. & Whiteman, Charles H., 2000. "A Bayesian approach to dynamic macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 203-223, October.
  28. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  29. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Do Central Banks Respond to Exchange Rate Movements? A Structural Investigation," Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics 505, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  30. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  31. Felipe G. Morandé, 1996. "Savings in Chile: What Went Right?," Research Department Publications, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department 4030, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  32. Anella Munro & Rishab Sethi, 2006. "The Present Value Model and New Zealand’s Current Account," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/12, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  33. Rodrigo Fuentes & Alejandro Jara & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Matías Tapia & Erika Arraño, 2003. "Efectos de la Nominalización de la Política Monetaria en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 197, Central Bank of Chile.
  34. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
  35. Herman Bennett & Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Heb, 2000. "Un Estudio del Ahorro Agregado por Agentes Económicos en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 85, Central Bank of Chile.
  36. Maurice Obstfeld, 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," NBER Working Papers 8369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo & Montiel, Peter J, 1996. "The Surge in Capital Inflows to Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 10(1), pages 51-77, January.
  38. Anella Munro & Rishab Sethi, 2007. "Understanding the New Zealand current account: A structural approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  39. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "A Bayesian Look at the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 313-382 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2007. "The Chilean Business Cycles Through the Lens of a Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile, Central Bank of Chile 457, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(16), pages 1-31.
  3. Juan Pablo Medina & Anella Munro & Claudio Soto, 2008. "What drives the current account in commodity exporting countries? The cases of Chile and New Zealand," BIS Working Papers 247, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Paul Cashin & Samya Beidas-Strom, 2011. "Are Middle Eastern Current Account Imbalances Excessive?," IMF Working Papers 11/195, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Chris Bloor & Rebecca Craigie & Anella Munro, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of a stable funding requirement," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2012/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  6. Andrew Filardo & Jason George & Mico Loretan & Guonan Ma & Anella Munro & Ilhyock Shim & Philip Wooldridge & James Yetman & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "The international financial crisis: timeline, impact and policy responses in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 21-82 Bank for International Settlements.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:247. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.