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Output trends and Okun's law

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  • Gert Schnabel

Abstract

This paper estimates trend growth rates for a sample of industrial countries by applying Okun's law in first differences. Despite the simplicity of the approach and the restrictive assumptions, the method typically yields reasonable results when trend shifts in the Okun coefficients and changes in structural unemployment are allowed for. Particular caution is required in using the method for estimating output gaps.

Suggested Citation

  • Gert Schnabel, 2002. "Output trends and Okun's law," BIS Working Papers 111, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Roel M. W. J. Beetsma & Xavier Debrun, 2004. "Reconciling Stability and Growth: Smart Pacts and Structural Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 431-456, November.
    2. José Brandão de Brito, 2005. "SEAM: A Small-Scale Euro Area Model With Forward-Looking Elements," Working Papers w200501, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Roger Perman & Christophe Tavera, 2005. "A cross-country analysis of the Okun's Law coefficient convergence in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2501-2513.
    4. Verick, Sher & Islam, Iyanatul, 2010. "The Great Recession of 2008-2009: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses," IZA Discussion Papers 4934, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. repec:ilo:ilowps:457693 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Islas C., Alejandro & Cortez, Willy Walter, 2013. "An assessment of the dynamics between the permanent and transitory components of Mexico's output and unemployment," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    7. PERUGINI, Cristiano, 2009. "Employment Intensity Of Growth In Italy. A Note Using Regional Data," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    8. João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Time‐Varying Relationship between Unemployment and Output: What shapes it?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(5), pages 605-630, November.
    9. Eduardo Loría & Manuel G. Ramos., 2007. "La ley de Okun: una relectura para México, 1970-2004," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 22(1), pages 19-55.
    10. Christo Mavrov, 2007. "The Dependence between Unemployment and GDP in Bulgaria: Application of Direct and Reverse Regression," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 45-65.

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