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Output trends and Okun's law

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  • Gert Schnabel
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    Abstract

    This paper estimates trend growth rates for a sample of industrial countries by applying Okun's law in first differences. Despite the simplicity of the approach and the restrictive assumptions, the method typically yields reasonable results when trend shifts in the Okun coefficients and changes in structural unemployment are allowed for. Particular caution is required in using the method for estimating output gaps.

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    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work111.pdf
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    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work111.htm
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 111.

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    Length: 39 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:111

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    1. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
    2. Tiff Macklemr & James Yetman, 2001. "Productivity growth and prices in Canada: what can we learn from the US experience?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation, volume 3, pages 29-48 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-36, May.
    4. Kaufman, Roger T., 1988. "An international comparison of Okun's laws," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 182-203, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Roel M. W. J. Beetsma & Xavier Debrun, 2004. "Reconciling Stability and Growth: Smart Pacts and Structural Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 431-456, November.
    2. Christo Mavrov, 2007. "The Dependence between Unemployment and GDP in Bulgaria: Application of Direct and Reverse Regression," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 45-65.
    3. Verick, Sher & Islam, Iyanatul, 2010. "The Great Recession of 2008-2009: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses," IZA Discussion Papers 4934, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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