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Bank runs without self-fulfilling prophecies

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  • Haibin Zhu
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    Abstract

    This paper proposes that bank runs are unique equilibrium outcomes instead of self-fulfilling prophecies. By assuming that depositors make their withdrawal decisions sequentially, the model provides an equilibrium-selection mechanism in the economy. A bank run would occur if and only if depositors perceive a low return on bank assets. Furthermore, a panic situation arises only when the market information is imperfect. A two-stage variant of the model shows that banks would deliberately offer a demand-deposit contract that is susceptive to bank runs.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 106.

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    Length: 32 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2001
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:106

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    1. Jianbo Zhang, 1997. "Strategic Delay and the Onset of Investment Cascades," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 28(1), pages 188-205, Spring.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Curtis R. Taylor & Thomas D. Jeitschko, 2001. "Local Discouragement and Global Collapse: A Theory of Coordination Avalanches," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 208-224, March.
    4. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    5. Peck, James & Shell, Karl, 2001. "Equilibrium Bank Runs," Working Papers 01-10r, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    6. David M. Frankel & Stephen Morris & Ady Pauzner, 2001. "Equilibrium Selection in Global Games with Strategic Complementarities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1336, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Contagion in Financial Markets," Finance 0207009, EconWPA.
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    Cited by:
    1. Mark M. Spiegel, 2000. "Solvency runs, sunspot runs, and international bailouts," Working Paper Series 2001-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Zhu, Haibin, 2005. "Bank runs, welfare and policy implications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 279-307, April.

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