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Choice Under Partial Uncertainty

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Author Info

  • Kelsey, D.

Abstract

This paper analyzes problems of choice under uncertainty where a decisionmaker does not use subjective probabilities. The decisionmaker has a set of beliefs about which states are more likely than others, but his beliefs cannot be represented as subjective probabilities. Three main kinds of decision rules are possible in this framework. These are maximin-type, maximax-type, and choosing that action that gives the highest payoff in the state, which the decisionmaker believes to be most likely. The author replaces the commonly used 'merger of states' axiom with a version of the sure-thing principle. Copyright 1993 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 91-19.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 1991
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:91-19

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Postal: Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT
Web page: http://www.economics.bham.ac.uk
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Related research

Keywords: decision making ; risk;

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Cited by:
  1. Hasson, Reviva & Löfgren, Åsa & Visser, Martine, 2009. "Climate Change in a Public Goods Game: Investment Decision in Mitigation versus Adaptation," Discussion Papers dp-09-23-efd, Resources For the Future.
  2. Jorge Alcalde-Unzu & Ricardo Arlegi & Miguel Ballester, 2013. "Uncertainty with ordinal likelihood information," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 397-425, July.
  3. Rolf Aaberge, 2002. "Empirical Rules of Thumb for Choice under Uncertainty," ICER Working Papers 22-2002, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  4. John K. Stranlund & Barry C. Field, 2006. "On the Production of Homeland Security Under True Uncertainty," Working Papers 2006-5, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Resource Economics.
  5. Marcello Basili & Carlo Zappia, 2010. "Ambiguity and uncertainty in Ellsberg and Shackle," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 449-474.
  6. Amélie Vrijdags, 2013. "Min- and Max-induced rankings: an experimental study," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 75(2), pages 233-266, August.
  7. Aldred, Jonathan, 2013. "Justifying precautionary policies: Incommensurability and uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 132-140.
  8. Naeve, Jorg, 2000. "Maximax, leximax, and the demanding criterion," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 313-325, November.
  9. L. Joe Moffitt & John K. Stranlund & Barry C. Field, 2005. "Inspections To Avert Terrorism: Robustness Under Severe Uncertainty," Working Papers 2005-3, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Resource Economics.
  10. Shaw, W. Douglass & Woodward, Richard T., 2008. "Why environmental and resource economists should care about non-expected utility models," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 66-89, January.
  11. Carlo Zappia, 2008. "Non-Bayesian decision theory ante-litteram: the case of G. L. S. Shackle," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 0408, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.

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