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Deficits, Debts and Defaults - Past, Present and Future

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  • Peter Sinclair
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    Abstract

    This paper explores the issue of whether rates of interest should and do tend to exceed rates of growth, a key determinant of debt sustainability. It goes on to consider the argument for debt renegotiation in circumstances where sustainability is in grave doubt.

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    File URL: ftp://ftp.bham.ac.uk/pub/RePEc/pdf/11-20.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 11-20.

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    Length: 17 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:11-20

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    Postal: Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT
    Web page: http://www.economics.bham.ac.uk
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    Related research

    Keywords: debt sustainability; debt renegotiation; default;

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    1. Uribe, Martin, 2006. "A fiscal theory of sovereign risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1857-1875, November.
    2. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2012. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Working Papers 462, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "One Reason Countries Pay their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 18, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    4. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    5. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R, 2005. "Measuring Fiscal Sustainability," CEPR Discussion Papers 5312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. John Fender & Peter Sinclair, 2006. "On Risk Aversion and Investment: A Theoretical Approach," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 162(4), pages 601-626, December.
    7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Ariell Reshef & Oved Yosha, 2005. "Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States?," Working Papers 2005-04, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    8. Paul Romer, 1989. "Endogenous Technological Change," NBER Working Papers 3210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
    10. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    11. Igor Livshits & James MacGee & Michele Tertilt, 2003. "Consumer bankruptcy: a fresh start," Working Papers 617, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
    13. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1990. "A Strategy for Efficient Debt Reduction," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 19-29, Winter.
    14. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1983. "Incentive Effects of Terminations: Applications to the Credit and Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 912-27, December.
    15. Dean P. Foster & H. Peyton Young, 2010. "Gaming Performance Fees by Portfolio Managers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1435-1458, November.
    16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
    17. Helpman, Elhanan, 1989. "The Simple Analytics of Debt-Equity Swaps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 440-51, June.
    18. Fernandez-Ruiz, Jorge, 2000. "Debt Buybacks, Debt Reduction, and Debt Rescheduling under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 13-27, February.
    19. Udaibir S. Das & Michael G. Papaioannou & Christoph Trebesch, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/10, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A Solution to the Disconnect between Country Risk and Business Cycle Theories," NBER Working Papers 13861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Fender, John & Sinclair, Peter, 2000. "A Theory of Credit Ceilings in a Model of Debt and Renegotiation," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 235-56, July.
    22. Eli M Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2007. "Interpreting sovereign spreads," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    23. John H. Cochrane, 2010. "Understanding Policy in the Great Recession: Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic," NBER Working Papers 16087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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