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Deficits, Debts and Defaults - Past, Present and Future

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  • Peter Sinclair
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    Abstract

    This paper explores the issue of whether rates of interest should and do tend to exceed rates of growth, a key determinant of debt sustainability. It goes on to consider the argument for debt renegotiation in circumstances where sustainability is in grave doubt.

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    File URL: ftp://ftp.bham.ac.uk/pub/RePEc/pdf/11-20.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 11-20.

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    Length: 17 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:11-20

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    Postal: Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT
    Web page: http://www.economics.bham.ac.uk
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    Related research

    Keywords: debt sustainability; debt renegotiation; default;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Igor Livshits & James MacGee & Michele Tertilt, 2005. "Consumer Bankruptcy: A Fresh Start," Discussion Papers 04-011, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
    3. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Ariell Reshef & Bent Sorensen & Oved Yosha, 2005. "Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States?," NBER Working Papers 11301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Cochrane, John H., 2011. "Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 2-30, January.
    5. Dean P. Foster & H. Peyton Young, 2010. "Gaming Performance Fees by Portfolio Managers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1435-1458, November.
    6. Gennaioli, Nicola & Martin, Alberto & Rossi, Stefano, 2010. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks and Financial Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7955, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade," Staff Reports 142, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Udaibir S. Das & Michael G. Papaioannou & Christoph Trebesch, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/10, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Elhanan Helpman, 1989. "The Simple Analytics of Debt-Equity Swaps," NBER Working Papers 2771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
    11. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A Solution to the Disconnect between Country Risk and Business Cycle Theories," NBER Working Papers 13861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Fender, John & Sinclair, Peter, 2000. "A Theory of Credit Ceilings in a Model of Debt and Renegotiation," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 235-56, July.
    13. Martin Uribe & Vivian Z. Yue, 2003. "Country Spreads and Emerging Countries: Who Drives Whom?," NBER Working Papers 10018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," NBER Working Papers 16151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Uribe, Martin, 2006. "A fiscal theory of sovereign risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1857-1875, November.
    16. Vito Polito & Mike Wickens, 2005. " Measuring Fiscal Sustainability," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0503, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    17. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    18. Fernandez-Ruiz, Jorge, 2000. "Debt Buybacks, Debt Reduction, and Debt Rescheduling under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 13-27, February.
    19. Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1990. "A Strategy for Efficient Debt Reduction," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 19-29, Winter.
    20. John Fender & Peter Sinclair, 2006. "On Risk Aversion and Investment: A Theoretical Approach," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 162(4), pages 601-626, December.
    21. Eli M Remolona & Michela Scatigna & Eliza Wu, 2007. "Interpreting sovereign spreads," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    22. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
    23. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1983. "Incentive Effects of Terminations: Applications to the Credit and Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 912-27, December.
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