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Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy : Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969-1998

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  • Erinç Yeldan

    ()

  • Kývýlcým Metin-Özcan

    ()

  • Ebru Voyvoda

    ()

Abstract

Our purpose in this paper is to establish stylized facts of the Turkish macroeconomic adjustments using data from 1969 to date. We adopt a traditional a-priori definition of business cycles as cyclical co-movements of economic variables such as public, private and construction investments, trade balance, labor productivity, wages and fiscal accounts with the cyclical component of real GDP. We also incorporate in our analysis an investigation of the cyclical components of exchange rates, interest rates, price inflation and the monetary aggregates. Our quantitative findings reveal a robust and significant positive relationship between public and private investments and real GDP growth, suggesting the presence of ?crowding in? effects of public investment. Trend growth of manufacturing wages and average labor productivity display a loose association over the whole period, and the rapid gains in productivity in the post-1980 reform era are not observed to be materialized as gains in remuneration of wage labor. We also find a significant negative correlation of manufacturing wages with merchandise exports and the exchange rate; and document further evidence on the strong negative correlation between variations in consumer prices and production.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bilkent University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 995.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:bil:bilpap:995

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Web page: http://econ.bilkent.edu.tr/
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  1. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 696-715, November.
  4. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Goldin,Ian & Winters,L. Alan (ed.), 1992. "Open Economies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521420563, October.
  8. Blackburn, Keith & Ravn, Morten O, 1992. "Business Cycles in the United Kingdom: Facts and Fictions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 59(236), pages 383-401, November.
  9. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  10. Yeldan, A.E., 2000. "The Impact of Financial Liberalization and the Rise of Financial Rents on Income Inequality: The Case of Turkey," Research Paper 206, World Institute for Development Economics Research.
  11. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
  12. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February.
  13. Andrew C Harvey & Albert Jaeger, 1991. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and The Business Cycle (Now published in Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol.8 (1993), pp.231-247.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /1991/230, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  14. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  15. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Peter Brandner & Klaus Neusser, 1992. "Business cycles in open economies: Stylized facts for Austria and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 67-87, March.
  17. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
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  19. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Mariano Roberto S & Gultekin Bulent N & Ozmucur Suleyman & Shabbir Tayyeb & Alper C. Emre, 2004. "Prediction of Currency Crises: Case of Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-21, August.
  2. Refik Erzan & Alpay Filiztekin & Unal Zenginobuz, 2007. "Turkey's Customs Union with the European Union: A Framework for Evaluating the Impact of Economic Integration," Working Papers 2007/15, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  3. Ardic, Oya Pinar & Yuzereroglu, Uygar, 2007. "How Do Individuals Choose Banks? An Application to Household Level Data from Turkey," MPRA Paper 6096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Oner Guncavdi & Suat Kucukciftci, 2011. "Openness to trade and structural changes in the sources of economic growth and labour demand in Turkey," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Negocios, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 8(1), pages 7-34, Julio-Dic.
  5. Fatma Zeren & Levent Korap, 2010. "A Cost-based Empirical Model of the Aggregate Price Determination for the Turkish Economy: A Multivariate Cointegration Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(2), pages 173-188, June.
  6. Mustafa Ismihan & Kivilcim Metin-Özcan & Aysit Tansel, 2002. "Macroeconomic instability, capital accumulation and growth: The case of Turkey 1963-1999," ERC Working Papers 0204, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2002.
  7. Özlem Onaran, 2007. "Wage Share, Globalization, and Crisis: The Case of the Manufacturing Industry in Korea, Mexico, and Turkey," Working Papers wp132, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  8. Ilina Srour & Marco Vivarelli & Erol Taymaz, 2013. "Technological Change and Skill-based Employment Disparities: Evidence from Turkey," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali dises1393, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  9. Srour, Ilina & Taymaz, Erol & Vivarelli, Marco, 2013. "Skill-Biased Technological Change and Skill-Enhancing Trade in Turkey: Evidence from Longitudinal Microdata," IZA Discussion Papers 7320, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. C. Emre Alper, 2000. "Stylized Facts of Business Cycles, Excess Volatility and Capital Flows: Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Working Papers 2000/11, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.

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