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Inflation Targeting : An Indirect Approach to Assess the Direct Impact

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  • Taner Yigit

Abstract

It is quite difficult to assess the benefits of inflation targeting (IT) since its immediate effect will be on inflation expectations, an unobserved variable. Due to lack of comprehensive data on inflation expectations, most studies so far concentrated on the impact of IT either on observable variables like output, unemployment, and inflation or compared post-IT surveys of IT countries with non-IT countries. In our study, we focus on a yet unanswered question, i.e., how the expectations change with the adoption of IT. We suggest that heterogeneous inflation expectations lead to long memory in actual inflation, and IT, if successful, should decrease this persistence by concentrating the public's expectations toward the announced target. Empirical results confirm our hypothesis with a reduction in inflation memory after the adoption of IT in almost all eight developed countries in our sample.

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Paper provided by Bilkent University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 0706.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:bil:bilpap:0706

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Cited by:
  1. Roman Horvath & Jakub Mateju, 2010. "How Are Inflation Targets Set?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp426, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  2. Ian Babetskii & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Inflation Persistence: Disaggregate Evidence on the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2007/22, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2007.
  3. Jan Babecky & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horvath, 2008. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp353, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  5. Juraj Antal & Zuzana Antonicova & Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Jarek Hurnik & Ondra Kamenik & Karel Musil & Jiri Podpiera & Lubos Ruzicka & Michal Skorepa & Katerina S, 2008. "Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number 01 edited by Katerina Smidkova, August.
  6. Roman Horvath, 2008. "Reasons of Undershooting the Inflation Target in the Czech Republic: The Role of Inflation Expectations," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 10, pages 131-142 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  7. Roman Horváth, 2008. "Undershooting of the Inflation Target in the Czech Republic: The Role of Inflation Expectations," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 482-492, December.

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