Inflation Uncertainty and Interest Rates : Is The Fisher Relation Universal?
AbstractThis paper tests the validity of the Fisher hypothesis, which establishes a positive relation between interest rates and expected inflation, for the G7 countries and 45 developing economies. For this purpose, we estimate a version of the GARCH specification of the hypothesis for all countries included in the sample. We also test the augmented Fisher relation by including the inflation uncertainty in the equation. The simple Fisher relation holds in all G7 countries but in only 23 developing countries. There is a positive and statistically significant relationship between interest rates and inflation uncertainty for six of the G7 and 18 of the developing countries and this relationship is negative for seven developing countries.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bilkent University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 0607.
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Hasan Olgun, 2007. "Inflation uncertainty and interest rates: is the Fisher relation universal?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 53-68.
- NEP-ALL-2006-05-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-05-13 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2006-05-13 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2006-05-13 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
- Berument, Hakan, 1999. "The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Interest Rates in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 207-18, May.
- Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995.
" Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-53, March.
- Martin D.D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1993. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Working Papers 93-06, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Berument, Hakan & Nergiz Dincer, N., 2005. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G-7 countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 348(C), pages 371-379.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991.
"Is the Fisher Effect for Real? A Reexamination of the Relationship Between Inflation and Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
3632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1992. "Is the Fisher effect for real? : A reexamination of the relationship between inflation and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 195-215, November.
- Jeung-Lak Lee & Carolyn Clark & Sung Ahn, 1998. "Long- and short-run Fisher effects: new tests and new results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 113-124.
- Hakan Berument & Mohamed Mehdi Jelassi, 2002. "The Fisher hypothesis: a multi-country analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1645-1655.
- Hakan Berument & Zubeyir Kilinc & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Missing Link Between Inflation Uncertainty And Interest Rates," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(2), pages 222-241, 05.
- Darby, Michael R, 1975. "The Financial and Tax Effects of Monetary Policy on Interest Rates," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(2), pages 266-76, June.
- Davis, George & Kanago, Bryce, 1996. "On Measuring the Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Real GNP Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 163-75, January.
- Habib Rahman & Hasan Mohsin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Stock Returns: Evidence from the Pakistani Market," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 342-360, December.
- Chen, XiaoHua & Maringer, Dietmar, 2011. "Detecting time-variation in corporate bond index returns: A smooth transition regression model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 95-103, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.