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The Effects of Exchange Rate Risk on Economic Performance : The Turkish Experience

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  • Hakan Berument
  • Nergiz Dinçer

Abstract

This study examines the effects of real exchange rate risk on the economic performance for an emerging, small open economy: Turkey. When the ratios of the total foreign exchange liabilities of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to: (1) total reserves; (2) the CBRT's reserves; and (3) the CBRT's total Turkish lira liabilities are taken proxy of exchange rate risk, the empirical evidence suggests that the increase in exchange rate risk causes a depreciation in the real exchange rate, an increase in prices and a decrease in output.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bilkent University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 0513.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:bil:bilpap:0513

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  1. Strongin, Steven, 1995. "The identification of monetary policy disturbances explaining the liquidity puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 463-497, June.
  2. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  3. Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August.
  4. Steven B. Kamin & John H. Rogers, 1997. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," International Finance Discussion Papers 580, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Davis, George & Kanago, Bryce, 1996. "On Measuring the Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Real GNP Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 163-75, January.
  6. Hakan Berument & Aslý Günay, 2001. "Exchange Rate Risk and Interest Rate : A Case Study for Turkey," Departmental Working Papers 0110, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  7. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
  8. Bruce Felmincham & Peter Mansfield, 1997. "Rationality and the Risk Premium on the Australian dollar," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 47-59.
  9. Berument, Hakan, 2007. "Measuring monetary policy for a small open economy: Turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 411-430, June.
  10. R. W. Hafer, 1985. "Inflation uncertainty and a test of the Friedman hypothesis," Working Papers 1985-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Cited by:
  1. Arslanturk, Yalcin & Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2011. "Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 664-671, January.
  2. Armah, Stephen E., 2008. "Explaining Ghana's Recent Good Cocoa Karma: Smuggling Incentive Argument," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6359, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  3. Saadet Kasman & Duygu Ayhan, 2006. "Macroeconomic Volatility under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 6(2), pages 37-58.
  4. Kasman, Adnan & Ayhan, Duygu, 2008. "Foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates in Turkey: Structural breaks, unit roots and cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 83-92, January.

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