Effects of Moments on Aggregation and Long Memory in Inflation
AbstractThere are two crucial conditions for cross-sectional aggregation of AR(1) parameters to produce long memory: 1) heterogeneity and 2) proximity to the unit root. We analyze role of moments, namely the mean and variance, of the distribution of the AR(1) coefficients in generating long memory. The positive relation between these moments and the order of integration suggests that the degree of fractional integration should decrease with a lower mean or variance. We investigate this result by first modeling long memory in inflation as a result of the aggregation of individual inflation expectations and then showing how the adoption of inflation targeting decreases the memory length in seven countries due to its moderating effect on individual inflation expectatio
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bilkent University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 0210.
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Kenneth Hightower & Taner M. Yigit, 2004. "Effect of Moments on Aggregation and Long Memory in Inflation," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 72, Econometric Society.
- C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marcus J. Chambers, .
"Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series,"
Economics Discussion Papers
437, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Chambers, Marcus J, 1998. "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1053-72, November.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1996.
"Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
5752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. " Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 975-1005, July.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
- Crettez, Bertrand & Michel, Philippe, 1992. "Economically rational expectations equilibrium," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 203-206, October.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Diebold, Francis X., 1994.
"On maximum likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter of fractionally-integrated noise with unknown mean,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 301-316, June.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Francis X. Diebold, 1990. "On maximum-likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter of fractionally integrated noise with unknown mean," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 34, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Francis X. Diebold, 1993. "On maximum-likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter of fractionally integrated noise with unknown mean," Working Papers 93-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001.
"Long memory and regime switching,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
- Naish, Howard F., 1993. "The near optimality of adaptive expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-22, January.
- Lewbel, Arthur, 1994. "Aggregation and Simple Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 905-18, September.
- Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1996.
"Persistence in International Inflation Rates,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
333., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
- Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001.
"The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C45-61, May.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 7884, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1905, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
- Figlewski, Stephen & Wachtel, Paul, 1981. "The Formation of Inflationary Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(1), pages 1-10, February.
- Liu, Ming, 2000. "Modeling long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 139-171, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.