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Bond Premium in Turkey

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  • Erdem Basci

Abstract

In this paper we examine the difference between T-Bill returns and common stock returns in Turkey. We observe that there is a bond premium in Turkey unlike the equity premia in developed countries. As an attempt to explain this surprising observation, we incorporate inflation risk and default risk to the Mehra and Presscott (1985) dynamic asset pricing model. Calibration with reasonable parameter values indicate that the inflation risk alone is not sufficient to explain the observed bond premium. However by allowing for the presence of a perceived default probability, we can explain the observed bond premium on Turkish T-Bills over Turkish common stocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bilkent University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 0207.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:bil:bilpap:0207

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References

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  1. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
  2. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  3. Ely, David P. & Robinson, Kenneth J., 1997. "Are stocks a hedge against inflation? International evidence using a long-run approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 141-167, February.
  4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Jun Liu, 2000. "Why Stocks May Disappoint," NBER Working Papers 7783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Telmer, Chris I, 1993. " Asset-Pricing Puzzles and Incomplete Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1803-32, December.
  6. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1995. "The equity premium: it's still a puzzle," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. Drudi, Francesco & Giordano, Raffaela, 2000. "Default risk and optimal debt management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 861-891, June.
  8. Shahid Ebrahim, M. & Mathur, Ike, 2001. "Investor heterogeneity, market segmentation, leverage and the equity premium puzzle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1897-1919, October.
  9. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. John Y. Campbell, 1998. "Asset Prices, Consumption, and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 6485, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  12. Hernandez-Trillo, Fausto, 1995. "A model-based estimation of the probability of default in sovereign credit markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 163-179, February.
  13. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1993. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 4369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Gallagher, Liam A. & Taylor, Mark P., 2002. "The stock return-inflation puzzle revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 147-156, April.
  15. Sylla, Richard & Wallis, John Joseph, 1998. "The anatomy of sovereign debt crises: Lessons from the American state defaults of the 1840s," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 267-293, July.
  16. Fisher, Stephen J, 1994. "Asset Trading, Transaction Costs and the Equity Premium," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S71-94, Suppl. De.
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Cited by:
  1. Mustafa Kilinç & Zübeyir Kilinç & M. Ibrahim Turhan, 2012. "Resilience of the Turkish Economy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(S5), pages 19-34, November.
  2. Prakash Kannan, 2008. "Perspectiveson High Real Interest Rates in Turkey," IMF Working Papers 08/251, International Monetary Fund.

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