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On the Dynamics of the Israeli-Arab Arms Race

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Author Info
Aamer Abu-Qarn () (Department of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)
Suleiman Abu-Bader () (Department of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the causal relationships between the military expenditures and military burden of the four major sides of the Israeli-Arab conflict, namely, Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria over the period 1960-2004. We utilize both the causality test suggested by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition method of Pesaran and Shin (1998). Our findings suggest weak causality that runs usually from Israel’s to Arab’s military spending. The strongest links are between Israel and Syria that are still in a state of enmity. No causality was detected between Israel’s and Jordan’s military spending.

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File URL: http://www.econ.bgu.ac.il/papers/251.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2007
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 251.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:251

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Related research
Keywords: Arms race; Middle East; Israeli-Arab conflict; Causality; Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326. [Downloadable!]
  3. Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-98, May.
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  4. Seiglie, Carlos & Liu, Peter C., 2002. "Arms races in the developing world: some policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 693-705, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. J. Dunne & Eftychia Nikolaidou & Ron Smith, 2005. "Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?," Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(2), pages 1. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  8. Aamer Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2007. "Structural Breaks in Military Expenditures: Evidence for Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria," Working Papers 231, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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