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Trade Liberalization or Oil Shocks: Which Explains Structural Breaks in International Trade Ratios?

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Author Info
Suleiman Abu-Bader () (Department of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)
Aamer Abu-Qarn () (Department of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

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Abstract

Ben-David and Papell's (1997) tests for structural breaks in international trade ratios over the post-WWII period revealed that trade ratios exhibited structural breaks in their paths and that postbreak trade averages exceeded prebreak averages. They attributed these breaks to trade liberalization policies executed during the postwar period. We reevaluate their results by comparing the postbreak trade ratios with extrapolated ratios based on the prebreak trend, and testing for structural breaks in the relative prices of imports (exports). We find that oil shocks rather than trade liberalization were the major factor behind the structural breaks in trade ratios.

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File URL: http://www.econ.bgu.ac.il/papers/227.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2006
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 227.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:227

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Related research
Keywords: International trade; Trade Liberalization; Structural change; Oil shocks; Kennedy Round;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F1 - International Economics - - Trade

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Marvel, Howard P & Ray, Edward J, 1983. "The Kennedy Round: Evidence on the Regulation of International Trade in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 190-97, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-1), pages 1-118. [Downloadable!]
  3. Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "Why Has Trade Grown Faster than Income?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 24(2), pages 417-27, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1997. "International trade and structural change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 513-523, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
    Other versions:
  6. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:6:p:818-49 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December. [Downloadable!]
  8. Irwin, Douglas A, 1996. "The United States in a New Global Economy? A Century's Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 41-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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