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Is the GDP Growth Rate in NIPA a Welfare Measure?

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  • Jorge Durán
  • Omar Licandro

Abstract

The permanent decline of equipment prices relative to nondurable consumption prices rendered fixed-base quantity indexes obsolete, because of the well-known substitution bias. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) responded by switching to a flexible-base quantity index to measure GDP growth. We argue this is a welfare measure of output growth. In a two-sector endogenous growth model, we use the Bellman equation to explicitly represent preferences on consumption and investment, we apply a Fisher-Shell true quantity index to this utility representation and show it is equal to the Divisia index, well approximated by the flexible-base quantity index used by NIPA.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Durán & Omar Licandro, 2012. "Is the GDP Growth Rate in NIPA a Welfare Measure?," Working Papers 665, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:665
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hulten, Charles R, 1992. "Growth Accounting When Technical Change Is Embodied in Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 964-980, September.
    2. Raouf Boucekkine & Fernando Del Río & Omar Licandro, 2003. "Embodied Technological Change, Learning‐by‐doing and the Productivity Slowdown," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(1), pages 87-98, March.
    3. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226304557 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Omar Licandro & Javier Ruiz-Castillo & Jorge Duran, 2002. "The Measurement of Growth under Embodied Technical Change," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 68(1), pages 7-19.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcus Cobb, 2014. "GDP Forecasting Bias due to Aggregation Inaccuracy in a Chain- Linking Framework," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 721, Central Bank of Chile.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth measurement; quantity indexes; embodied technical progress; NIPA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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