IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bge/wpaper/1089.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hedger of Last Resort: Evidence from Brazilian FX Interventions, Local Credit, and Global Financial Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigo Barbone Gonzales
  • Dmitry Khametshin
  • José-Luis Peydró
  • Andrea Polo

Abstract

We show that FX interventions attenuate global financial cycle (GFC)'s spillovers. We exploit GFC shocks and Brazilian central bank interventions in FX derivatives using three matched administrative registers: credit, foreign credit to banks, and employer-employee. After U.S. Taper Tantrum (followed by Emerging Markets FX turbulence), Brazilian banks with more foreign debt cut credit supply, thereby reducing firm-level employment. A subsequent large policy intervention supplying derivatives against FX risks-hedger of last resort-halves the negative effects. A 2008-2015 panel exploiting GFC shocks and FX interventions confirms these results and the hedging channel. However, the policy entails fiscal and moral hazard costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Barbone Gonzales & Dmitry Khametshin & José-Luis Peydró & Andrea Polo, 2019. "Hedger of Last Resort: Evidence from Brazilian FX Interventions, Local Credit, and Global Financial Cycles," Working Papers 1089, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1089
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bse.eu/sites/default/files/working_paper_pdfs/1089_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Perri, Fabrizio, 2013. "Global banks and crisis transmission," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 495-510.
    2. Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez & Dmitry Khametshin & José-Luis Peydró & Andrea Polo, 2018. "Hedger of last resort: Evidence from Brazilian FX interventions, local credit, and global financial cycles," Economics Working Papers 1648, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2022.
    3. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mehmet Fatih Ulu & Yusuf Soner Baskaya, 2022. "International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles [Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(2), pages 733-773.
    4. Ms. Prachi Mishra & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Lam Nguyen, 2014. "Impact of Fed Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2014/109, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Santos, Francisco Luna & Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto & Medeiros, Marcelo Cunha, 2015. "Price Discovery in Brazilian FX Markets," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 35(1), October.
    6. Roberto Chang, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Intervention Redux," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Álvaro Aguirre & Markus Brunnermeier & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Transmission Mechanisms and Policy Implications, edition 1, volume 26, chapter 7, pages 205-247, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Morais, Bernardo & Peydró, José-Luis & Roldán Peña, Jessica & Ruiz Ortega, Claudia, 2019. "The International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Rates and QE: Credit Supply, Reach-for-Yield, and Real Effects," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74(1), pages 55-90.
    8. Kearns, Jonathan & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions: evidence from Australia and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 31-48, May.
    9. Olivier Blanchard, 2021. "Currency Wars, Coordination, and Capital Controls," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 4, pages 134-157, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Vladyslav Sushko & Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2016. "The failure of covered interest parity: FX hedging demand and costly balance sheets," BIS Working Papers 590, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Lev Ratnovski, 2017. "Global liquidity and cross-border bank flows," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(89), pages 81-125.
    13. Marcio Magalhães Janot & Leonardo Peixoto Macedo, 2016. "Efeitos das Intervenções Cambiais sobre a Taxa de Câmbio Futura no Brasil," Working Papers Series 413, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    14. Gita Gopinath & Jeremy C Stein, 2021. "Banking, Trade, and the Making of a Dominant Currency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 783-830.
    15. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    16. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    17. Fratzscher, Marcel & Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Stöhr, Tobias, 2019. "When Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective? Evidence from 33 Countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 0(1), pages 132-156.
    18. Bruno, Valentina & Shin, Hyun Song, 2015. "Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 119-132.
    19. Dietrich Domanski & Emanuel Kohlscheen & Ramon Moreno, 2016. "Foreign exchange market intervention in EMEs: what has changed?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    20. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," Working Paper Series WP15-18, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    21. Daniel Paravisini & Veronica Rappoport & Philipp Schnabl, 2015. "Specialization in Bank Lending: Evidence from Exporting Firms," NBER Working Papers 21800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Boris Hofmann & Hyun Song Shin & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2019. "FX intervention and domestic credit: evidence from high-frequency micro data," Borradores de Economia 1069, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    23. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2006. "When do central bank interventions influence intra-daily and longer-term exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1051-1071, November.
    24. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
    25. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    26. Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva & Ricardo Eyer Harris, 2012. "Sailing through the Global Financial Storm: Brazil's recent experience with monetary and macroprudential policies to lean against the financial cycle and deal with systemic risks," Working Papers Series 290, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    27. Chamon, Marcos & Garcia, Márcio, 2016. "Capital controls in Brazil: Effective?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 163-187.
    28. Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2017. "FX swaps and forwards: missing global debt?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    29. Ralph De Haas & Neeltje Van Horen, 2013. "Running for the Exit? International Bank Lending During a Financial Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 244-285.
    30. Janot, Marcio Magalhães & Macedo, Leonardo Peixoto, 2016. "Efeitos das intervenções cambiais sobre a taxa de câmbio futura no Brasil," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 70(4), December.
    31. Morais,Bernardo & Peydró,José-Luis & Ruiz Ortega,Claudia, 2015. "The international bank lending channel of monetary policy rates and quantitative easing : credit supply, reach-for-yield, and real effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7216, The World Bank.
    32. Olivier Blanchard & Jonathan D. Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Marcos Chamon, 2017. "Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 563-585, August.
    33. Kohlscheen, Emanuel & Andrade, Sandro C., 2014. "Official FX interventions through derivatives," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 202-216.
    34. Chamon, Marcos & Garcia, Márcio & Souza, Laura, 2017. "FX interventions in Brazil: A synthetic control approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 157-168.
    35. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    36. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    37. Gita Gopinath & Jeremy C Stein, 0. "Banking, Trade, and the Making of a Dominant Currency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 136(2), pages 783-830.
    38. Philipp Schnabl, 2012. "The International Transmission of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 897-932, June.
    39. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S Goldberg, 2011. "Global Banks and International Shock Transmission: Evidence from the Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(1), pages 41-76, April.
    40. Marcio Garcia & Tony Volpon, 2014. "DNDFs:a more efficient way to intervene in FX markets?," Textos para discussão 621, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    41. Timini, Jacopo, 2020. "Staying dry on Spanish wine: The rejection of the 1905 Spanish-Italian trade agreement," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniela Gabor, 2021. "The Wall Street Consensus," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 52(3), pages 429-459, May.
    2. Polo, Andrea & Gonzalez, Rodrigo & Khametshin, Dmitry & Peydró, José-Luis, 2018. "Hedger of Last Resort: Evidence from Brazilian FX Interventions, Local Credit and Global Financial Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 12817, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Boris Hofmann & Hyun Song Shin & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2019. "FX intervention and domestic credit: Evidence from high-frequency micro data," BIS Working Papers 774, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Timothy Jackson & Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, 2020. "Foreign exchange intervention and financial stability," BIS Working Papers 889, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Becker, Chris & Ossandon Busch, Matias & Tonzer, Lena, 2021. "Macroprudential policy and intra-group dynamics: The effects of reserve requirements in Brazil," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Syarifuddin, Ferry & Izzulhaq, Syahid, 2020. "The Effectiveness of Futures-based Foreign Exchange Intervention: Comparative Studies of Brazil and India," MPRA Paper 104709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Yannis Dafermos & Daniela Gabor & Jo Michell, 2023. "FX swaps, shadow banks and the global dollar footprint," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 55(4), pages 949-968, June.
    8. Martin Vesna, 2020. "Intervention Strategies in Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 58(3), pages 381-399, September.
    9. Gabor, Daniela, 2020. "The Wall Street Consensus," SocArXiv wab8m, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baskaya, Yusuf Soner & di Giovanni, Julian & Kalemli-Özcan, Şebnem & Peydro, José-Luis & Ulu, Mehmet Fatih, 2017. "Capital flows and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 15-22.
    2. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2020. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 693-719, September.
    3. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 0. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 0, pages 1-27.
    4. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Horváth, Bálint L. & Huizinga, Harry, 2020. "Foreign banks and international transmission of monetary policy: Evidence from the syndicated loan market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Elliott, David & Meisenzah, Ralf R & Peydró, José-Luis, 2023. "Nonbank lenders as global shock absorbers: evidence from US monetary policy spillovers," Bank of England working papers 1012, Bank of England.
    6. Douglas W. Diamond & Yunzhi Hu & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2020. "The Spillovers from Easy Liquidity and the Implications for Multilateralism," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 4-34, March.
    7. Mircea Epure & Irina Mihai & Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró, 2017. "Global financial cycle, household credit, and macroprudential policies," Economics Working Papers 1590, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2023.
    8. Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "FX intervention to stabilize or manipulate the exchange rate? Inference from profitability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Stijn Claessens, 2017. "Global Banking: Recent Developments and Insights from Research," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1513-1555.
    10. Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2019. "US Monetary Policy and International Risk Spillovers," CEPR Discussion Papers 14053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.
    12. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Timothy P. Jackson & Luiz Pereira da Silva, 2020. "Foreign Exchange Intervention and Financial Stability," Working Papers 202027, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    14. Catão, Luís A.V. & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel, 2021. "Capital account liberalization and the composition of bank liabilities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    15. Julian di Giovanni & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Mehmet Fatih Ulu & Yusuf Soner Baskaya, 2022. "International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles [Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Spillovers with Imperfect Financial Markets]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(2), pages 733-773.
    16. Epure, Mircea & Mihai, Irina & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis, 2018. "Household Credit, Global Financial Cycle, and Macroprudential Policies: Credit Register Evidence from an Emerging Country," EconStor Preprints 216800, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    17. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide, 2019. "Uncertainty and cross-border banking flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 260-274.
    18. Leslie Sheng Shen, 2021. "Global Banking and Firm Financing: A Double Adverse Selection Channel of International Transmission," International Finance Discussion Papers 1325, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Alexander Rodnyansky & Yannick Timmer & Naoki Yago, 2023. "Intervening against the Fed," CESifo Working Paper Series 10575, CESifo.
    20. Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez, 2019. "Monetary policy surprises and employment: evidence from matched bank-firm loan data on the bank lending-channel," BIS Working Papers 799, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange; monetary policy; central bank; bank credit; hedging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1089. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bruno Guallar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bargses.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.