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Optimal Exchange Rate Policy in a Growing Semi-Open Economy

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Author Info

  • Bacchetta, P.
  • Benhima, K.
  • Kalantzis, Y.

Abstract

In this paper, we consider an alternative perspective to China's exchange rate policy. We study a semi-open economy where the private sector has no access to international capital markets but the central bank has full access. Moreover, we assume limited financial development generating a large demand for saving instruments by the private sector. We analyze the optimal exchange rate policy by modeling the central bank as a Ramsey planner. Our main result is that in a growth acceleration episode it is optimal to have an initial real depreciation of the currency combined with an accumulation of reserves, which is consistent with the Chinese experience. This depreciation is followed by an appreciation in the long run. We also show that the optimal exchange rate path is close to the one that would result in an economy with full capital mobility and no central bank intervention.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 452.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:452

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Keywords: China; exchange rate policy and international reserves.;

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References

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  1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-93, March.
  2. Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 7 - 42.
  3. Bacchetta, Philippe & Benhima, Kenza & Kalantzis, Yannick, 2012. "Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R, 2011. "Financial Crisis and Macro-Prudential Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8175, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  11. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Baccheta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-16, Swiss Finance Institute.
  12. Dennis Tao Yang & Junsen Zhang & Shaojie Zhou, 2011. "Why Are Saving Rates so High in China?," NBER Working Papers 16771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 261, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Gaofeng Han & Tommy Wu, 2012. "Productivity Growth of the Non-Tradable Sectors in China," Working Papers 082012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  15. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  16. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2012. "Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51506, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  17. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2012. "Financial Intermediation, Exchange Rates, and Unconventional Policy in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 18431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Anton Korinek, 2011. "The New Economics of Prudential Capital Controls: A Research Agenda," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 59(3), pages 523-561, August.
  19. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Ranciere, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Scholarly Articles 12490419, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. China is doing is right with managing its exchange rate
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-11-11 17:24:00
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Cited by:
  1. Bacchetta, P. & Benhima, K. & Kalantzis, Y., 2012. "Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal?," Working papers 406, Banque de France.
  2. Rick Van der Ploeg, 2013. "Guidelines for Exploiting Natural Resource Wealth," Economics Series Working Papers OxCarre Research Paper 12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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