IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/44.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Le contrat notionnel : efficience et causalité

Author

Listed:
  • Bensaid, B.
  • Boutillier, M.

Abstract

The main topic of this paper is about the overall functionnning of the french futures bonds market. Three mains questions are asked: (1) Is the futures market inefficient? (2) Is there any free lunch between the future market and the spot market? (3) Does one of these markets play a leader role? Econometric tests give globally an negative answer to all these three questions. The arbitrage's opportunities which have been detected in the period 86.12-90.06 can be explained by the restrictions to sell-short bonds in the french cash market. The two tests on the rationality of the expectations which have been undertaken (a time series test and a panel data test) yield the same conclusion : one cannot reject the assumption that the market is efficient. Finally, tests of causality between the future market and the cash market on daily data shows strong instantaneous correlation between them. Concerning delayed causality, the future market have played a leader role during the period 90.01-93.06 during which one has observed an overall stability of the futures prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bensaid, B. & Boutillier, M., 1997. "Le contrat notionnel : efficience et causalité," Working papers 44, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:44
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/working-paper_44_1997.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
    4. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    5. Kawai, Masahiro, 1983. "Price Volatility of Storable Commodities under Rational Expectations in Spot and Futures Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 24(2), pages 435-459, June.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    7. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    8. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Lai-Tong, C. & Salomon, R., 1993. "Analyse Statistique du Matif," Papers 1993-08-f, Caisse des Depots et Consignations - Cahiers de recherche.
    9. Newbery, David M, 1987. "When Do Futures Destabilize Spot Prices?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 291-297, June.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    11. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Séverine Vandelanoite, 2000. "Intraday relations between CAC 40 cash index and CAC 40 index options [Relations intrajournalières entre l'indice CAC 40 et les options sur indice. Quel est le marché préféré des investisseurs info," Post-Print halshs-03727911, HAL.
    2. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Séverine Vandelanoite, 2002. "Relations intrajournalières entre l'indice CAC 40 et les options sur indice : Quel est le marché préféré des investisseurs informés ?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 66, pages 143-177.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Tiffin & P. J. Dawson, 2002. "The Demand for Calories: Some Further Estimates from Zimbabwe," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(2), pages 221-232, July.
    2. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    3. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    4. Muhammad Omer & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2009. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 5, pages 53-81.
    5. Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2013. "The impact of global oil price shocks on the Lebanese stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 366-374.
    6. Naser, Hanan, 2014. "On the cointegration and causality between Oil market, Nuclear Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 65252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Mar 2015.
    7. Yanhua Chen & Rosario N Mantegna & Athanasios A Pantelous & Konstantin M Zuev, 2018. "A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-40, March.
    8. Adusei Jumah, 2004. "The long run, market power and retail pricing," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 605-620, September.
    9. Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2006. "Risk and return implications from investing in emerging European stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-299, July.
    10. Vassiki Sanogo & Richard K. Moussa, 2017. "Financial Reforms, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in the Ivory Coast," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, February.
    11. Caporale, G. M. & Pittis, N., 1998. "Cointegration and predictability of asset prices1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 441-453, June.
    12. Chen, Yanhua & Li, Youwei & Pantelous, Athanasios A. & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2022. "Short-run disequilibrium adjustment and long-run equilibrium in the international stock markets: A network-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2020. "Welfare Impact of Asymmetric Price Transmission on Bangladesh Rice Consumers," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 242248, October.
    14. Goetz, Cole & Miljkovic, Dragan & Barabanov, Nikita, 2021. "New empirical evidence in support of the theory of price volatility of storable commodities under rational expectations in spot and futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. Paul Gallimore & J. Andrew Hansz & Wikrom Prombutr & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Long-term Cointegrative and Short-term Causal Relations among U.S. Real Estate Sectors," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 17(3), pages 359-394.
    16. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng, 2012. "Energy prices and exchange rates of the U.S. dollar: Further evidence from linear and nonlinear causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2289-2297.
    17. Mohammad Jaforullah & Alan King, 2015. "is New Zealand's economy vulnerable to world oil market shocks?," Working Papers 1503, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2015.
    18. Xiaming Liu & Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly, 1997. "Are Chinese stock markets efficient? A cointegration and causality analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(8), pages 511-515.
    19. Rahman, Mohammad Chhiddikur, 2018. "Welfare Impact of Asymmetric Price Transmission on Bangladesh Rice Consumers," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 251114, October.
    20. Floriana Florestano, 2013. "Hydrocarbon exploitation and macroeconomic performance: a structural var approach for Basilicata1," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2013(1), pages 147-174.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael brassart (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.