Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area
Abstract
In this paper we examine the sustainability of euro area public finances against the backdrop of population ageing. We critically assess the widely used projections of the Working Group on Ageing Populations (AWG) of the EU's Economic Policy Committee and argue that ageing costs may be higher than projected in the AWG reference scenario. Taking into account adjusted headline estimates for ageing costs, largely based upon the sensitivity analysis carried out by the AWG, we consider alternative indicators to quantify sustainability gaps for euro area countries. With respect to the policy implications, we assess the appropriateness of different budgetary strategies to restore fiscal sustainability taking into account intergenerational equity. Our stylised analysis based upon the lifetime contribution to the government's primary balance of different generations suggests that an important degree of pre-funding of the ageing costs is necessary to avoid shifting the burden of adjustment in a disproportionate way to future generations. For many euro area countries this implies that the medium-term targets defined in the context of the revised stability and growth pact would ideally need to be revised upwards to significant surpluses.Download Info
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Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 225.Length: 72 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:225
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Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
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Related research
Keywords: Population Ageing ; Fiscal Sustainability ; Generational Accounting ; Medium-term Objectives for Fiscal Policy;Other versions of this item:
- Balassone, Fabrizio & Cunha, Jorge Correia da & Langenus, Geert & Manzke, Bernhard & Pavot, Jeanne & Prammer, Doris & Tommasino, Pietro, 2009. "Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Fabrizio Balassone & Jorge Cunha & Geert Langenus & Bernhard Manzke & Jeanne Pavot & Doris Prammer & Pietro Tommasino, 2009. "Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area," Working Paper Research 155, National Bank of Belgium.
- Fabrizio Balassone & Jorge Cunha & Geert Langenus & Bernhard Manzke & Jeanne Pavot & Doris Prammer & Pietro Tommasino, 2009. "Fiscal sustainability and policy implications for the euro area," Working Paper Series 994, European Central Bank.
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- M. Nautet & L. Van Meensel, 2011. "Economic impact of the public debt," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue II, pages 7-19, September.
- Abraham, Filip & Van Hove, Jan, 2010. "Can Belgian firms cope with the Chinese dragon and Asian tigers? The export performance of multi-product firms on foreign markets," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/330214, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Andrew B. BERNARD & Emily J. BLANCHARD & Ilke VAN BEVEREN & Hylke Y. VANDENBUSSCHE, 2012.
"Carry-Along Trade,"
Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales)
2012020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Bernard, Andrew B. & Blanchard, Emily & van Beveren, Ilke & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2012. "Carry-Along Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 9067, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Van Beveren, Ilke & Bernard, Andrew B & Blanchard, Emily J & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2011. "Carry-along trade," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/387875, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Van Beveren, Ilke & Bernard, Andrew B. & Blanchard, Emily J. & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2011. "Carry-Along Trade," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/319741, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Andrew B. Bernard & Emily J. Blanchard & Ilke Van Beveren & Hylke Y. Vandenbussche, 2012. "Carry-Along Trade," NBER Working Papers 18246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernard, Andrew B & Blanchard, Emily J & Van Beveren, Ilke & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2012. "Carry-along trade," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/387876, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Bernard, Andrew B & Van Beveren, Ilke & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2010.
"Multi-product exporters, carry-along trade and the margins of trade,"
Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
urn:hdl:123456789/382740, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Bernard, Andrew B & Van Beveren, Ilke & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2010. "Multi-product exporters, carry-along trade and the margins of trade," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/386402, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Bernard, Andrew B & Van Beveren, Ilke & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2010. "Multi-product exporters, carry-along trade and the margins of trade," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/387848, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Bernard, Andrew B & Van Beveren, Ilke & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2010. "Multi-product exporters, carry-along trade and the margins of trade," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/381952, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
- Andrew B. Bernard & Ilke Van Beveren & Hylke Vandenbussche, 2010. "Multi-product exporters, carry-along trade and the margins of trade," Working Paper Research 203, National Bank of Belgium.
- Axel H. Börsch-Supan, 2012. "Entitlement Reforms in Europe: Policy Mixes in the Current Pension Reform Process," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Some Uncomfortable Arithmetic Regarding Europe's Public Finances," IMF Working Papers 10/177, International Monetary Fund.
- Axel H. Börsch-Supan, 2012. "Entitlement Reforms in Europe: Policy Mixes in the Current Pension Reform Process," NBER Working Papers 18009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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