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International Crisis, Instability Periods and Contagion: The Case of the ERM

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Author Info
Emanuele Bacchiocchi (University of Milan)
Marta Bevilacqua

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Abstract

In this paper we propose a two step procedure for modelling the propagation of financial shocks. The first step consists in the estimation, by means of SWARCH models, of the conditional probability of being in a period of high volatility while, in the second step such indicators are included in a structural simultaneous models for interdependences among different countries. The results show that episodes of financial crisis effectively happened during periods of high volatility and that such measures of instability are important in explaining the propagation of devaluation expectations between six European Countries during the ERM period.

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Paper provided by Universitá degli Studi di Milano in its series UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics with number 1079.

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Date of creation: 28 Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bep:unimip:1079

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Related research
Keywords: Contagion; SWARCH models; ERM;

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  1. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2007. "Volatility transmission across markets: a Multichain Markov Switching model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 659-670. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Massacci, D., 2007. "Identification and Estimation in an Incoherent Model of Contagion," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0744, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas, 2007. "Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1245-1277, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Helen Higgs & Andrew C. Worthington, 2004. "Transmission of returns and volatility in art markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 217-222, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Uma Moorthy & W. R. M. Perraudin & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2002. "Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes," IMF Working Papers 02/7, International Monetary Fund.
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