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Precios de bienes primarios e inflación en Colombia

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Author Info

  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Ximena Chavarro

    ()

  • Eliana Rocío González

    ()

Abstract

Se documenta el traspaso de los precios internacionales de alimentos y energía a un número importante de precios de las canastas del consumidor y del productor, la inflación básica y las expectativas para los últimos veinte años en Colombia. Se estiman efectos de primera y segunda ronda obteniendo evidencia de que los segundos son superiores a los primeros aunque durante la vigencia de la estrategia de metas de inflación, los efectos de segunda ronda, a nivel agregado, son menores. En cuanto a los precios individuales, los traspasos a inflación básica y expectativas son superiores a los efectos de primera ronda y cercanos a los de precios agregados. Estos resultados podrían estar relacionados con una credibilidad de la autoridad monetaria menos que completa pero con grandes avances durante los últimos diez años. Se verifica, además, la existencia de efectos asimétricos, encontrando diferencias en el traspaso cuando se presentan aumentos y reducciones en los precios internacionales de los bienes primarios.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 712.

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Length: 45
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:712

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Keywords: Bienes primaros; inflación; efectos de primera ronda; efectos de segunda ronda; traspaso; expectativas. Classification JEL:E31;

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References

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  1. Jose De Gregorio. & Oscar Landerretche. & Christopher Neilson., 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 417, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2006. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 12713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
  4. Munir Jalil & Esteban Tamayo, 2011. "Pass-through of International Food Prices to Domestic Inflation During and After the Great Recession: Evidence from a Set of Latin American Economies," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1991. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 506-524, September.
  6. Q. Farooq Akram, 2008. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Working Paper 2008/12, Norges Bank.
  7. Eduardo Borensztein & Peter Wickham & Mohsin S. Khan & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices," IMF Occasional Papers 112, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Luis E. Arango & Fernando Arias & Adriana Fl�rez, 2012. "Determinants of commodity prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 135-145, January.
  9. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & John Jairo León & Luis Fernando Melo., 2008. "Cambios de la Tasa de Política y su Efecto en la Estructura a Plazo de Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 257-291.
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