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Sensibilidad del IPC a la Tasa de Cambio en Colombia: Una Medición de Largo Plazo

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  • Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez

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Abstract

En el presente artículo se realiza una aproximación del pass-through de largo plazo de la tasa de cambio nominal al índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) para Colombia durante el período 1994 - 2005 siguiendo de cerca la propuesta de Campa y Goldberg (2006). En ella se tienen en cuenta algunas de las hipótesis desarrolladas recientemente por la macroeconomía internacional para explicar el enigma de la desconexión entre la tasa de cambio y la inflación doméstica, tales como la presencia de márgenes de distribución y comercialización sobre los bienes importados y el peso de estos en la canasta del IPC. El ejercicio permite identificar, partiendo de una estructura de mercado de competencia monopolística y empleando la información contenida en las matrices de insumo-producto del DANE varios canales a través de los cuales se da el traspaso de un choque de la tasa de cambio nominal al IPC. La calibración bajo el escenario base permite concluir que, en promedio, una devaluación nominal del 10% implica un incremento aproximado en el IPC del 2.82%. Adicionalmente, desde un punto de vista estático se observa que este efecto estimado no ha sido constante durante el período estudiado y contrario a la hipótesis de Taylor (2000) el pass-through ha aumentado en medio de una reducción de la inflación. En efecto, mientras que en 1994 el efecto era del 2.64%, en 2005 era de aproximadamente 2.91\% con un pico de 3.41% en 2003.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 542.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:542

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Keywords: Pass-Through; Transables; No Transables; Competencia Imperfecta; Matriz Insumo - Producto; Colombia. Classification JEL: E01; F3; F4; L1.;

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  1. Menon, Jayant, 1995. " Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
  2. Hernán Rincón & Edgar Caicedo & Norberto Rodríguez, . "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Effects: A Disaggregate Analysis of Colombian Imports of Manufactured Goods," Borradores de Economia 330, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Norihiko Yamano & Nadim Ahmad, 2006. "The OECD Input-Output Database: 2006 Edition," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2006/8, OECD Publishing.
  4. Ariel T. Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2000. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations," RCER Working Papers 473, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Kenneth A. Froot & Paul Klemperer, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters," NBER Working Papers 2542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. J. McCarthy, 1999. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies," BIS Working Papers 79, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Linda S. Goldberg & José Manuel Campa, 2010. "The Sensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates: Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs, and Trade Exposure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 392-407, May.
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