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The Demographic Transition in Colombia: Theory and Evidence

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Author Info
Daniel Mejía ()
María Teresa Ramírez ()
Jorge Tamayo ()

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Abstract

The demographic transition from high to low mortality and fertility rates was one of the most important structural changes during the twentieth Century in most Latin American economies. This paper uses a simple economic framework based on Galor and Weil (2000) for understanding the main forces behind this structural transition; namely, increases in the returns to human capital accumulation driven by continuous advances in productivity led families to reduce the number of offspring and increase the level of investment in their education. As a result, the economy transits from a stage of stagnation subject to Malthusian forces to a stage of sustained economic growth, where increases in productivity lead to improvements in living standards. We use available data for Colombia between 1905 and 2005 to test the main predictions of the model with time series analysis, finding empirical evidence in their favor.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 538.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:538

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Related research
Keywords: Economic Growth; Demographic Transition; Colombia. Classification JEL: C32; J11; N36; O40; O54.;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Oded Galor & Andrew Mountford, 2008. "Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2008-2, Brown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Galor, Oded, 2004. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 4581, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kremer, Michael, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2002. "Natural Selection And The Origin Of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1133-1191, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Matthias Doepke, 2004. "Accounting for Fertility Decline During the Transition to Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 347-383, 09. [Downloadable!]
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  6. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2002. "Demographic transition and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Greece," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 221-242. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "Mortality Reductions, Educational Attainment, and Fertility Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 580-601, June. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Broadberry, Stephen, 2007. "Recent Developments In The Theory Of Very Long Run Growth : A Historical Appraisal," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 818, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Michael Bar & Oksana Leukhina, . "Demographic Transition and Industrial Revolution: A Macroeconomic Investigation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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