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Testing a DSGE model and its partner database

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Author Info
Lavan Mahadeva ()
Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez ()

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Abstract

There is now an impetus to apply dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to forecasting. But these models typically rely on purpose-built data, for example on tradable and nontradable sector outputs. How then do we know that the model will forecast well, in advance? We develop an early warning test of the database-model match and apply that to a Colombian model. Our test reveals where the combination should work (consumption) and where not (in investment). The test can be adapted to look at many likely sources of DSGE model failure.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 479.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:479

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary Policy; Sectoral Model; DSGE; Forecast Performance; Kalman Filter. Classification JEL: F47; E01; C61;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2006. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Working Paper Series 583, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 722, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Christopher Allsopp & Amit Kara & Edward Nelson, 2006. "United Kingdom Inflation Targeting and the Exchange Rate," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages F232-F244, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mayer, Thomas, 1975. "Selecting Economic Hypotheses by Goodness of Fit," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(340), pages 877-83, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Mattias Villani & Malin Adolfson & Jesper Linde, 2005. "Forecasting Performance of an Open Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 32, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Basu, Susanto, 1995. "Intermediate Goods and Business Cycles: Implications for Productivity and Welfare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 512-31, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Working Papers 13166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. West, Kenneth D & McCracken, Michael W, 1998. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 817-40, November.
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  12. Luis F. Céspedes & Marcelo Ochoa & Claudio Soto, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 355, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  13. Whelan, Karl, 2006. "New Evidence on Balanced Growth, Stochastic Trends, and Economic Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 5910, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  14. James G. MacKinnon, 2006. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics," Working Papers 1028, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Johri, Alok & Letendre, Marc-Andre, 2007. "What do `residuals' from first-order conditions reveal about DGE models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2744-2773, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Jaromir Benes & David Vávra & Marta de Castello Branco, 2007. "A Simple DGE Model for Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 07/197, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Adolfson, Malin & Andersson, Michael K. & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias & Vredin, Anders, 2005. "Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks," Working Paper Series 188, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2006. [Downloadable!]
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