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Disinflation Costs Under Inflation Targeting in Small Open Economy Economy

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  • Paulina Restrepo Echavarría

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Abstract

Since 1991, inflation in Colombia was reduced from 25% on average to about 6% more recently. Although this performance is in line with a long run inflation target of 3%, some analysts ask whether the Central Bank should continue disinflating. In this paper we present a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of inflation targeting for a small open economy to answer this question. We calibrate the model to the Colombian economy and compute the welfare cots and benefits of achieving the long run inflation target. We find that the long run welfare gains are about 4.54% in terms of capital. Furthermore, accounting for the transition the welfare gains are about 1.18% in terms of capital. Our results differ from previous findings because transition costs are introduced and our environment considers the presence of real rigidities (monopolistic competition) and nominal rigidities (sticky information) in a small open economy. We also analyze the sensitivity of the results to some key parameters and conclude that higher price flexibility leads to lower gains from reducing inflation and that a country with markups. The weight given to the inflation gap in the monetary policy rule is important, as a more aggressive Central Bank can improve welfare. Finally, we find that disinflation is more expensive in the case of a closed economy.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 328.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:328

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Keywords: Small Open Economy; Inflation Targeting; Compensation; Colombia.;

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  1. Martha López, 2001. "Seigniorage And The Welfare Cost Of Inflation In Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz, 1998. "Dynamic equilibrium economies: a framework for comparing models and data," Staff Report 243, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I & Rebelo, Sergio T, 2002. "Production, Growth and Business Cycles: Technical Appendix," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 87-116, October.
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  5. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, 2005. "Estimación Estructural Y Análisis De La Curva De Phillips Neokeynesiana Para Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  6. Michael Dotsey & Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "State-Dependent Pricing And The General Equilibrium Dynamics Of Money And Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 655-690, May.
  7. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  8. Franz Hamann Salcedo & Juan Manuel Julio & Paulina Restrepo, . "Inflation Targeting in a Samll Open Economy: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 308, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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