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Importaciones Agropecuarias: A qué Responden?

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  • Enrique Ospina
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    Abstract

    Durante la década de los noventa las importaciones agropecuarias en Colombia se han incrementado considerablemente contribuyendo al déficit de la cuenta corriente, lo cual ha causado preocupación. Este incremento de las importaciones agropecuarias se ha atribuido a la apertura económica, al mismo tiempo que se le señala como la razón más importante detrás del comportamiento mediocre del sector agropecuario. No son pocos los que han sugerido echar atrás el proceso de liberación del comercio exterior, y aunque tal cambio de política es poco probable debido a los compromisos internacionales adquiridos, es evidente que dicho proceso de apertura internacional en el sector agropecuario, evaluando las relaciones entre las importaciones agropecuarias y variables macroeconómicas como la tasa real de cambio y el ingreso, al tiempo que verifica la hipótesis de un cambio estructural en la demanda de importaciones agropecuarias como resultado de la apertura del comercio inetrnacional en 1991. Para lograr este objetivo se desarrrolla un modelo econométrico y se evalúan las relaciones de largo plazo entre las variables por medio de cointegración. Los resultados indican que el incremento de las importaciones agropecuarias se explica principalmente por la revaluación de la tasa real de cambio y el aumento del ingreso per capita de los consumidores, en tanto que las políticas de apertura han contribuido al desplazamiento de la demanda por importaciones agropecuarias aunque en una magnitud menor a la que comúnmente se le ha atribuido.

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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 107.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:107

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    1. Valdes, A, 1996. "Surveillance of Agricultural Price and Trade Policy in Latin America during Major Policy Reform," World Bank - Discussion Papers 349, World Bank.
    2. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Peter Montiel, 2001. "Reform and Growth in Latin America: All Pain, No Gain?," Center for Development Economics 166, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    3. Maurizio Bussolo & David Roland-Holst, 1998. "Colombia and the NAFTA," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 009209, FEDESARROLLO.
    4. Adams, Dale W & Von Pischke, J. D., 1992. "Microenterprise credit programs: Deja vu," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1463-1470, October.
    5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    6. Martha Misas & Hugo Oliveros, . "Cointegración, exogeneidad y Crítica de Lucas: Funciones de Demanda de Dinero en Colombia: Un ejercicio más," Borradores de Economia 075, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Valdes, Alberto & McCalla, Alex F., 1996. "The Uruguay round and agricultural policies in developing countries and economies in transition," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(4-5), pages 419-431.
    8. Johnson, D Gale, 1997. "Agriculture and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 1-12, May.
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